Crime joins health as a major issue in a much changed area

Campaign spat between Sean Haughey and third FF candidate highlights thecompetition in this Dublin constituency, writes Marie…

Campaign spat between Sean Haughey and third FF candidate highlights thecompetition in this Dublin constituency, writes Marie O'Halloran

As constituencies go, Dublin North Central is deemed very "punter friendly". It has higher than average election and referendum turnouts.

There is a strong TD recognition factor and the electorate is well used to regular missives and notices from its public representatives.

The creation of this "punter friendliness" is attributed to Fine Gael's Richard Bruton, now the longest serving TD in North Central, a former Minister and currently the party's director of policy.

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When the 53-year-old economist first went for election in 1982 he blazed a trail with clinics, canvassing, notices, letters, and attendance at public meetings.

He was elected to the Dáil and then maintained the same high visibility as though, as one observer put it, on permanent election alert.

This mantle of zeal has since been taken over by Fianna Fáil's Ivor Callely. The 43-year-old topped the poll in 1997 with a massive 11,190 votes, one of the highest in the State, and mirrored in the 1999 local elections. It was achieved with the help of just such persistent and dogged visibility and immersion in constituency localism.

But this same personal success was seen as a team failure and deemed poor vote management. Fianna Fáil's three candidates had a combined first preference vote of 2.3 quotas in 1997. Two were elected - Ivor Callely and Sean Haughey.

This time around Fianna Fáil is seen as being "cute" in the addition to the ticket of Deirdre Heney, one of the party's new young councillors. She is Dáil secretary to the Taoiseach's brother, Noel Ahern.

The appearance of her campaign posters on constituency lamp-posts just as a spat with Sean Haughey about the Taoiseach canvassing with her, has strategically raised her profile and highlights the competition not just in the constituency but within the party.

The same TDs have been in place in the four-seat constituency since 1992 - the two Fianna Fáil deputies, Richard Bruton and Labour's finance spokesman, Derek McDowell.

In 1997 the 43-year-old solicitor, then a Labour backbencher, suffered the consequences of the party's involvement in and withdrawal from two "messy" governments and struggled to retain his seat. He also contended with the last compaign of environmentalist Sean Dublin Bay Loftus.

This time however, he has a much higher profile as finance spokesman. He is also expected to benefit from boundary changes, which will bring in Edenmore, Ennafort and Raheny, traditional Labour-supporting areas.

Vote management by Fianna Fáil, if possible in such a competitive constituency, is still unlikely to give them three seats but could affect transfers to the Labour TD.

He could benefit from elements of dissatisfaction with the Government.

But if that extends to all the major parties, his real competition in the final shake-up will be from Independent councillor Finian McGrath.

A social activist in the constituency, he had major success in the local elections. As a teacher he has campaigned on education, on disability, and the last time around the port tunnel was a major issue for Marino residents.

Sinn Féin at one point asked him to be their candidate but after talks he decided to go it alone. He is, however, one of the eight Independents contesting the election as part of the loose Independents Health Alliance.

Sinn Féin did not have a candidate in Dublin North Central in 1997 but has put forward Frances McCole, a teacher, in this election.

This will probably impact on Finian McGrath's first-preference votes, but he is likely to pick up Sinn Féin transfers.

Dublin North Central extends out to Clontarf, down through Marino to the Tolka river and up to the edge of Drumcondra.

The demographics have changed greatly in the past 20 years from a predominantly working class area to a growing middle class with a surge in the number of young couples and professionals.

The environment is moving onto the agenda and the controversy about the potential infilling of 52 acres of Dublin Bay is a concern for Clontarf voters in particular. The Green Party's press officer, Stephen Rawson, ran last time, managing 1,650 first-preference votes, ahead of Finian McGrath's 1,551.

This time Bronwen Maher, campaign director for Patricia McKenna's European Parliament election, is the party's candidate and she can expect to pick up some votes and raise the party's profile.

Richard Bruton's Fine Gael running mate is Cllr Gerry Breen, a company manager, and the Social Workers' Party candidate is Ritchie Browne, an FLS Aerospace employee.

In the growing affluence of Dublin North Central, "health, health and health" is the main issue but concerns about crime and public order also feature.

Prediction: FF 2, FG 1, Lab 1 No change.

1997: FF 46.44%; FG 26.03% Lab 6.6%; PDs 3.3%; GP 3.82%; DL 2.77% SW 1.62% Others 9.43%.

Outgoing TDs: Ivor Callely and Sean Haughey (FF); Richard Bruton (FG); Derek McDowell (Lab).