Cubans want to keep revolution's gains

CUBA: The familiar bearded face gazes out from a billboard over a sunlit old Havana beside the reassuring slogan "Vamos bien…

CUBA: The familiar bearded face gazes out from a billboard over a sunlit old Havana beside the reassuring slogan "Vamos bien".

Close by, another poster wishes the world's longest-serving leader a happy birthday and calls for "another 80 years".

Now, however, for the first time since he led his rebel army into Havana in 1959, the man who epitomises Cuba has stepped down, albeit temporarily. So what does the future hold for the island after Fidel Castro?

The illness that has laid Castro low has not come as a complete surprise. Even in a country which has its own 120 Club for those who reach that remarkable age, it has been accepted that the days of Fidel would one day end. But for many it is hard to envisage a future without the man who has been the father of the nation for longer than most Cubans have been alive.

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"Already you see businessmen coming over from Miami," says Rafael, a middle-aged mechanic. "They are not dummies, they know what may happen and they want to plant the seeds now and harvest them later. But we are not illiterate like we were before.

"We don't want Miami here. Things are hard, things are difficult, but people are educated now and the people in Miami, they have been away so long they don't know that . . . But I hope we can change without any bloodshed."

Diplomats point to the increasing frequency with which Raul Castro, Fidel's brother who has temporarily taken over the presidency, has been appearing in the media as a sign the changeover has long been planned.

Even some of those who hope to see an end to all the Castros think that change will be gradual rather than the sudden shift desired by the hardline Cuban exiles in Miami.

Brian Latell, former CIA analyst on Cuba and author of the book After Fidel, believes that Raul "is likely to be more flexible and compassionate in power".

But Raul is 75 and many anticipate that his leadership will be nominal or short-lived. The three other - younger - names most frequently mentioned as likely to take over the running of government are those of Ricardo Alarcon (69), president of the national assembly, a former UN ambassador and the most public face of the government; Carlos Lage (54), the vice-president; and Felipe Perez Roque, the 41-year-old foreign relations minister and Castro's loyal former chief-of-staff.

There have been, according to Fabian Escalante, former head of the Cuban secret service, 638 plots to kill Castro, not to mention the many plans - of which the abortive "Bay of Pigs" invasion in 1961 is the best-known - to remove his government by force.

Last month, the US government published a report by its Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba, which appeared to seek change in a non-violent way, with $80 million assigned for the purpose, but which included a secret classified annexe "for reasons of national security".

Those loyal to the government say its policies will survive any changes at the top. They point to the much-admired health service and an education system that has brought the country the highest literacy rates in Latin America.

But others foresee a different Cuba, one in which the Communist Party has no part. One of the most prominent of these is Osvaldo Paya, who launched the Varela Project in 2002, which called for freedom of elections, speech and association and the ability to start private businesses.

"There are more than 300 political prisoners in Cuba today," Mr Paya says. "It's difficult to say exactly what the offences are, but it can be just for being critical of Fidel Castro.

"We don't want a grand privatisation like in Russia," Mr Paya says. "We don't want the poor becoming poorer and a nomenclatura in power. We want to keep the health service free and education free. [ Our] programme destroys the myth that we have to choose between socialism and freedom."

Between those who seek a continuation of the government and those who seek total change are those loyal to Castro and what has been achieved but who have complaints about the way the country is run. One teacher says: "There is too much centralisation and there are too many restrictions - for instance, I am not even allowed to sell my car to anyone.

"But I would still fight to the death for the revolution."