The IRA's act of decommissioning will steady Northern politics, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
Gerry Adams, with a very serious and straight face, told us that the timing of the IRA's decommissioning announcement was not linked to next month's general election in the Republic.
Sitting at his left shoulder at this west Belfast press conference yesterday was Sinn Féin's candidate in the Louth constituency, Mr Arthur Morgan, perfectly placed to exploit this plum photo-opportunity.
Little wonder therefore that there was quite an amount of cynical reaction to this latest act from the IRA. The bottom line, however, is that, while the IRA statement may have an unsettling effect south of the Border, it will help settle politics north of it.
That did not prevent anti-Belfast Agreement unionist politicians queueing up to dismiss the move. Unionists such as David Burnside, Ian Paisley, Peter Robinson, Gregory Campbell, Jeffrey Donaldson and Martin Smyth characterised it as a stunt.
On the other side of the negative spectrum Ruairí Ó Bradaigh of Republican Sinn Féin said it was "another act of abject treachery".
Mr Smyth, the South Belfast Ulster Unionist MP, probably had the most unusual take on the issue. He seemed to view the timing as an affront to the British royal family.
"It is also beyond contempt that the IRA has made this announcement at a time when large sections of the community are focused on the funeral of the queen mother," he thundered.
The No wing of unionism certainly believes in having its cake and eating it. For years the political process was virtually paralysed over the demand for decommissioning, but even with this second disposal of arms its response was utterly negative.
BBC presenter David Dunseith put it to David Burnside yesterday that "surely half a loaf is better than no bread?"
The South Antrim MP said he wanted to see the loaf. He suspected that the British government would pay a high price for this IRA gesture.
Mr Adams pointed out that the IRA described its move as "unilateral" while adding that Sinn Féin still wanted movement on issues such as policing, demilitarisation, human rights and justice. The Northern Secretary, Dr John Reid said no deals were done, while suggesting there could be reciprocation. "We have to move ahead with every part of the Good Friday agreement," he said.
As in October the IRA again insisted that Gen John de Chastelain not disclose what guns and explosives were rendered unusable and inaccessible. In October the general said the IRA act was "significant". This time he said the IRA leadership had put beyond use "a varied and substantial quantity of ammunition, arms and explosives".
It's hard to argue with the word "substantial".
The Ulster Unionist leader, Mr David Trimble, understandably couldn't resist the opportunity to gloat at his tormentors. "I have to turn round to those anti-agreement unionists who said this would not happen. Gentlemen, where are you now? Looking rather foolish, I think is the answer," he said.
Mr Trimble believed that the IRA was engaged in a "process" of decommissioning.
He, and most other politicians, will be relieved that this provides an opportunity for politics to bed down. Job security is a wonderful tonic, even for those opposed to the agreement.
The disarmament should allow the Executive and the Assembly get on with real politics.
Mr Trimble routed his No bloc at the Ulster Unionist Council last month and now, buoyed by this second IRA act, he should have time to strengthen his leadership and prepare the Ulster Unionist Party for the crucial May 2003 Assembly elections.
If he is to resist the DUP challenge then he must now restore majority unionist support both for the agreement and his party.
Being a politician in Northern Ireland is like steering a ship through a large and dangerous minefield, but while there could be further explosive times ahead this is Mr Trimble's first opportunity to assert his leadership and the value of the Good Friday accord, free from the distraction of disputes over guns and government.
The spotlight can now turn to the loyalist paramilitaries. But while Gen de Chastelain, Dr Reid, Mr Trimble and other political leaders urged the UDA, UVF and other loyalist groups to follow the IRA's example, there are no indications they are in any mood to imminently emulate their adversaries.
We will know soon enough whether this act will improve Sinn Féin's electoral prospects in the South. What we know now is that politics and politicians in Northern Ireland have a chance to stabilise and possibly grow and even flourish.
And if there were any doubt before it would seem almost beyond contradiction now that in terms of provisional republicanism the ballot box has ascendancy over the Armalite.
It also demonstrates that Mr Gerry Adams and Mr Martin McGuinness are firmly in control of the movement, notwithstanding the IRA's and Mr Adams's expressed concern yesterday that this disposal of arms will cause "difficulties" for some grassroots republicans.