SUDAN:DARFUR'S PEACE process has all but collapsed, principals here say, raising questions about the viability of a new UN peacekeeping force and the future of an international aid campaign approaching its sixth year.
Since a much-hyped Libyan peace conference fell apart last fall, a joint UN-African Union mediation effort has reported little progress in reaching a resolution or even getting players to the negotiating table.
"You hear nothing from them anymore," said Sudanese political analyst Safwat Fanous, head of University of Khartoum's political science department, about the mediators. "I think they've given up. There are no peace negotiations in the pipeline."
A chief negotiator said the peace effort was still alive but would undergo an overhaul, including the appointment of a new top envoy and adoption of a streamlined agenda.
"No doubt the peace process is in serious trouble," said Sam Ibok, the lead African Union mediator. "It's not going anywhere." He said participants, including the Sudanese government and rebel movements, had lost confidence in the process and remained unable to overcome their mutual distrust.
Rebels have fractured into more than 20 groups, and the Arab-dominated administration of President Omar Hassan Ahmed Bashir has failed to formulate a clear Darfur strategy in conjunction with its power-sharing partner, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement, or SPLM.
UN special envoy Jan Eliasson and AU special envoy Salim Ahmed Salim, whose joint leadership has come under fire, will be replaced soon by a single chief, Mr Abok said. In an effort to break the stalemate, future talks will focus on a short list of issues, including security, victim compensation and power-sharing, he said.
The stalemate comes amid a recent renewal of hostilities in some parts of Darfur, where violence and killings had declined significantly over the past two years.
Some worry that both sides are reverting to old habits in the conflict, which began in 2003 when Darfur rebels clashed with Sudanese forces and their allied militias. An estimated 200,000 people have died, mostly from disease and hunger.
After a December offensive by rebel group Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) in west Darfur, the Sudanese military in early February bombed three cities, killing more than 100 people and causing more than 50,000 to flee. Rebels accused the government of additional bomb attacks last week, local media reported.
Government officials denied attacking civilians. They blamed the international community for failing to pressure rebel groups to join the peace process, noting that several rebel leaders boycotted October's Libya talks.
"We are disappointed in the international community," Foreign Ministry spokesman Ali Sadiq said. "We still have no road map."
Humanitarian groups in Darfur, where the world is spending nearly $1 billion a year in aid and another $2.5 billion for peacekeepers, say the lack of progress threatens their efforts, particularly if donors turn to other world emergencies.
"Darfur is pretty high profile," said Kenro Oshidari, country director in Sudan for the World Food Program. "But it's been going on for five years. I don't think it's sustainable."
The peacekeeping mission is also at risk since its primary mandate is to enforce a peace deal that is nowhere on the horizon.
The latest complication is next year's planned national election.
Rebel leaders insist Darfur is too unstable to hold a vote, noting that more than 2.5 million people have been displaced. Since the region accounts for as much as one-fifth of Sudan's population, they say elections should not proceed.
"We are not going to let the census or election take place," said Tahir Elfaki, a JEM official in London. "We have the means to do this. We are fighters."
Political experts said rebel groups might also be concerned that they stand to lose power, particularly since most are unprepared for a political campaign, which would require they transform their armies into parties.
"They'd be defeated," said former Sudanese prime minister Sadiq Al-Mahdi, now head of the opposition Umma Party, which won the majority of Darfur votes in the last free election in 1986. "They have support for their cause but not much political support. After an election, they wouldn't have the same prominence."
Mr Sadiq's party has threatened to boycott the national election if Darfur doesn't participate, as some government officials have suggested.
Hassan Turabi, another opposition leader and head of Popular Congress Party, said impending elections might help rejuvenate peace talks.