Dark clouds gather as the politicians dither

The slow bicycle race to peace continues

The slow bicycle race to peace continues. How slow can you go without actually falling off? The glacial rate of progress inside the talks contrasts starkly with the pace of events outside. After 18 months, the parties at Stormont are not even agreed on the key issues to be addressed in a peace settlement. The politicians dither and the clouds overhead grow darker and darker.

Orange dissidents staged an unsuccessful putsch against their leadership. It was oddly reminiscent of the GPO takeover in 1916. Another nationalist echo was the slogan: "One Orangeman, one vote".

The IRA, meanwhile, is reported to be training and testing weapons against a possible return to war. It is generally believed the organisation will be reviewing the terms of any settlement that is reached but there are no convincing indications that it has already made up its mind in advance to reject the deal and call off the ceasefire. Nevertheless, the snail's pace of events at Stormont is taking its toll on "doves" in all parties and groups.

One of the tunes that could be heard quietly but insistently this week was the lament of the moderate nationalist. These are the people who see themselves as having carried the can for reason and tolerance in good times and bad.

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The largest parties, and therefore the main signatories to any settlement, are the SDLP and the Ulster Unionists. The SDLP has worked closely with different administrations in Dublin for many years and has benefited from the political support and back-up of constitutional nationalism and its bureaucracy.

Lately, however, the party seems to be feeling squeezed, neglected and, to some extent, taken for granted. Even the Taoiseach's visit this week was preceded by a behind-the-scenes stand-off because City Hall and the SDLP Lord Mayor were not initially part of Mr Ahern's itinerary.

The optimism generated by last month's Trimble-Ahern meeting in London did not extend to the SDLP - or Sinn Fein for that matter. One senior constitutional nationalist felt the "spin" was exaggerated and that Dublin was playing politics. The Andrews gaffe showed how delicate the new relationship was, although the Taoiseach patched over those differences at Stormont last Monday.

Dublin and London both seem to be walking on eggs as far as relations with the UUP and Sinn Fein are concerned. In the process it is perhaps inevitable that the loyal, stable and reliable SDLP should feel aggrieved.

"Passivity" is the charge laid at the door of the two governments by senior SDLP sources. During the week, the SDLP secured a deal with the Ulster Unionists on the key issues but the terms did not suit Sinn Fein. In the circumstances, SDLP sources felt Dublin should have intervened and "put the heat" on the republicans. Instead, Dublin sat on its hands.

The rationale for Dublin's behaviour was that the situation inside the republican camp is still too delicate for such robust handling. The emergence of Ms Bernadette Sands McKevitt, sister of the late Bobby Sands, as a focus of opposition and doubt over Sinn Fein's role in the peace process could be the tip of a larger iceberg.

"There's a dilemma in every direction," was how one talks insider put it. "It is essential to the talks process to embrace everybody's concerns." The ceasefire must be kept intact; David Trimble's position has to be shored up; the loyalists are essential to sufficient consensus on the unionist side - the list goes on.

There is deep worry in the Catholic establishment north of the Border about the position of the SDLP. Sinn Fein has been making huge strides in recent years and its new-found electoral strength is mirrored by an impressive network of community activists. At the same time, the SDLP is not getting any younger.

Yesterday's meeting of the leaders' group in the talks achieved little in concrete terms. But like an amateur stage production, it seems things will be all right on the night.

There is talk now of a further meeting of leaders on Monday before next week's full plenary session. The likelihood is that a paper of sorts will be presented to the delegates with a general list of key issues. Specifics will be few and far between but it should be possible to move the process another slow, painful step forward.

It did not help that a UUP-Blair meeting last month was arranged for the day after the talks broke up into "crucial" bilaterals. That took the steam out of the negotiators for a week. It is not helpful either that legislation on the future of policing in Northern Ireland will be debated in the House of Commons on Monday, leading to the unavoidable absence of some senior politicians from Stormont.

There are no grounds for despondency but a fair basis for impatience. It is generally accepted that the British Prime Minister has a poor grasp of detail on this issue. The Northern Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam, is seen as having no great eye for detail either, which serves to increase the burden on Mr Paul Murphy in the thankless job of Minister for Political Development.

The Taoiseach has put a huge effort into the peace process. He helped tip the balance in favour of a ceasefire. He now faces the greatest test of his famed consensus skills and he is not helped by the fact that the unionists have with considerable skill made his Foreign Minister look like a lame duck.

The indications are that he could find common ground with Mr Trimble on the North-South relationship by strengthening East-West links between the two islands. If he succeeds in "squaring" the UUP leader, he may alienate the SDLP and Sinn Fein.

The republicans remain touchy about the fact that the UUP will not talk to them directly. Close observers are optimistic that the two parties will "interface" in time. But time is not the most plentiful commodity in the North these days.