THE DECISION by the National Party (NP) to withdraw from South Africa's Government of National Unity, announced yesterday by Deputy President F.W. de Klerk, has left a critical question its wake: is a similar decision by Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi's Inkatha Freedom Party to be expected?
The IFP, like the NP and Mr Nelson Mandela's African National Congress (ANC), qualified for representation in the Government of National Unity by winning more than 20 seats in the National Assembly in the 1994 general election. Discontent in the IFP with the ANC surfaced regularly after the coalition government was formed, particularly over the ANC's failure - as the IFP sees it - to honour an undertaking to refer unresolved constitutional differences to international mediation. Feelings in the IFP on the mediation issue ran so strong that it withdrew from the negotiations which led to the new constitution.
Closely linked to complaints that the ANC was bent on establishing a centralised autocracy were allegations that the ANC used its dominant position in the central government to interfere in the IFP ruled province of Kwa Zulu Natal, scene of continuing and often bloody rivalry between the ANC and the IFP.
The NP decision to quit Mr Mandela's government from the end of next month came after an emergency meeting yesterday of its federal council. The meeting had been brought forward from its scheduled date of Tuesday next because of the decline in the value of the rand - as measured against the US dollar - amid rumours that an NP withdrawal was imminent.
A major factor in the run against the rand was the uncertainty over the NP's intentions. By ending that uncertainty yesterday the NP allowed the market - in Mr De Klerk's phrase - to react to fact rather than rumour. The market appeared to respond positively to Mr De Klerk's announcement, closing at R4.50 to the dollar after rising above that before lunch.
Another reason given by Mr De Klerk for the NP's decision was its desire to play a more vigorous role as an opposition party. To the chagrin of a growing faction of the party's leadership, the NP was inhibited from assuming an opposition function because of its role as a partner in the coalition government.
Mr De Klerk identified the ANC's refusal to include a power sharing formula in the new constitution, which comes into operation in 1999, as yet another factor in the NP decision to become a fully fledged opposition party.
"It would be unnatural to continue in the Government of National Unity when everybody knows that the principles on which it rests have already been discarded in the new constitution", Mr De Klerk said. "The NP has felt for some time now that our influence in the Government of National Unity has been declining. The ANC is acting more and more as if they no longer need multi party government."
Mr De Klerk dismissed reports that the NP's move heralded his own retirement from the political arena. That rumour is false. I am raring to go as leader of the opposition", he said.
Mr Mandela, who had been informed of the NP's decision before it was announced publicly, thanked Mr De Klerk for his contribution to the coalition government, adding that the ANC was supremely confident" it could carry on its role in the government of the country.
Under the old constitution political parties which won 20 or more seats in the 400 member National Assembly were entitled to representation in the cabinet in proportion to their share of the vote.
One of Mr Mandela's tasks in the coming weeks is to select men and women to fill at least five of the six posts held by NP men. The sixth portfolio may be assigned to the IFP.
However, Mr De Klerk's position as Deputy President will not be filled. As it is specifically reserved for the leader of the second biggest party, the leader of the third biggest party, Chief Buthelezi, does not qualify.