The Taoiseach is expected to tell Mr David Trimble this morning of incremental progress he believes has been made towards resolving the decommissioning crisis. Government sources insist that a deal to save the North's political institutions in the next 36 hours is still possible.
Mr Ahern briefed President Clinton again last night on the situation as three senior Irish officials returned to Dublin after an intensive day of discussions with Sinn Fein, Ulster Unionists, the SDLP and British officials. He will meet Mr Trimble at Government Buildings this morning as the final round of frantic contacts gets under way.
Government sources last night reported some further progress in their efforts to ensure that yet another report or statement from the head of the decommissioning body, Gen. John de Chastelain, could yet stave off suspension of the all-party Executive, Assembly and North/South bodies.
The IRA interlocutor dealing with the decommissioning body is believed to have had a series of discussions with Gen. de Chastelain this week and is expected to meet the general at least once more, either today or tomorrow. To prevent the looming suspension, the general must be put in a position after that discussion to report that he is convinced that the IRA will decommission weapons.
According to one source: "The general has to be able to affirm that he would be able to fulfil his mandate in accordance with the Good Friday agreement."
The Government has been putting intense pressure on the republican movement to engage sufficiently with the general to enable him to make such a report. The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, returned to Dublin last night after giving the Northern Secretary, Mr Peter Mandelson, a detailed briefing on the progress of these efforts at a meeting in London yesterday evening.
While all efforts are currently concentrated on securing a positive and clear report from Gen. de Chastelain, there is still considerable doubt over whether this would be enough for the Ulster Unionist Party leader, Mr David Trimble, to carry the day at his Ulster Unionist Council meeting on Saturday. Mr Trimble is expected to give Mr Ahern his assessment of what would be required at this morning's meeting.
Government sources say they still have no reliable indication as to how the IRA will respond in the coming 36 hours to the past week of pressure and discussions that have taken place since the IRA statement of last Saturday. They say last Saturday's statement contained some advance on its previous position, but fell short of what is required to avert suspension of the institutions.
The Taoiseach has since been demanding "clarity" from the IRA on the issue of decommissioning. Government sources say some progress has been made in this direction, but more needs to be made.
Last weekend's statement does not give an unequivocal commitment that the IRA will disarm, nor does it say when any such disarmament will begin or end. In Saturday's statement the IRA acknowledged for the first time that the issue of weapons "needs to be dealt with in an acceptable way and this is a necessary objective of a genuine peace process". It asserted that "the peace process is under no threat from the IRA".