ASSESSMENT: If re-elected in May, perhaps the idea that Bertie Ahern doesn't believe in much should be re-examined, writes Mark Brennock
It is often suggested that Mr Bertie Ahern has few strong convictions: that he is a consensus man, keen to avoid confrontation, to keep everyone happy, to keep the show on the road. During the recent abortion referendum campaign he himself acknowledged that he was often accused of not believing strongly in things.
What is remarkable is that this claim about him still has currency almost five years into the term of a Government which had the clearest view of where it was going in key policy areas and has pursued its core aims relentlessly and in the teeth of criticism.
On the economy, it is the Minister for Finance and the PDs who are seen as holding the ideological views on cutting taxes on income, capital and business, and they have unflinchingly implemented this vision. The State's tax regime has been steadily transformed by this Government through relentless pursuit of liberal, free-market, low-tax economics.
It is difficult to believe that such a project was pursued without the deep conviction of the Taoiseach. However, the remarkable thing about Bertie Ahern is that he personally remains free of ideological labels, being seen as the chairman, the consensus man, the deal-maker and sorter of problems.
His personal determination was seen more clearly on Northern Ireland, where he led the pursuit of the restoration of the ceasefire, the Belfast Agreement, the operation of the new political institutions and the deal on decommissioning.
Each step may have seemed almost imperceptible, but a comparison of where the North's political process is now compared to where it was five years ago shows the progress has been dramatic. Any Taoiseach might have pursued this, but none could have pursued it so single-mindedly without personal conviction.
He has also led his party through extreme trauma as its present leaders tried to escape damage from its recent past. He headed up the first coalition led by Fianna Fáil that did not prematurely fall to pieces.
This was all despite the constant stream of revelations of past wrongdoing and other classic issues on which Fianna Fáil and the PDs traditionally divide.
There was the resignation of Ray Burke amid sleaze allegations, the resignation and jailing of Liam Lawlor, the tax dodging of Denis Foley, there was Beverley Cooper-Flynn, found by a jury to have encouraged tax evasion, and Ned O'Keeffe, who did not declare an interest in a Dáil division before casting his vote.
There was the Sheedy affair and the attempt to appoint Hugh O'Flaherty to the European Investment Bank. There was the signing of blank cheques for Charles Haughey, the Gilmartin and Dunlop allegations.
But as the damaging revelations emerged incessantly, Mr Ahern defused them one by one, at least to the satisfaction of Ms Harney and her party. His personal poll ratings remain those usually reserved for figures seen as somehow above politics. People warm to his personality, and the mud doesn't stick.
Mr Ahern has yet to lead his party to real electoral success. In 1997 he led it to its second-worst election performance in history, in terms of its national share of the vote. It was only superb vote management that masked this reality. The loss of all six by-elections in this Government's lifetime also unnerves party managers. Mr Ahern himself acknowledges in this interview that whatever the national poll ratings, the party vote tends to come under pressure as the campaign goes on.
The big test is yet to come, but he has kept his party, and Government, steady through a very stormy period. If he is elected Taoiseach again, perhaps the idea that he doesn't believe in much might be re-examined.