China's economic growth is likely to slow slightly in 2006 and the main task for the year will be to avoid deflation, a national planning authority think-tank has said.
Issuing the latest in a series of forecasts from official research groups, the think-tank said gross domestic product would be 8.5 to 9 per cent higher this year than it was in 2005. The most recent official estimate of 2005 growth was 9.8 percent.
Today's report, from the National Development and Reform Commission's Academy of Macroeconomic Research, was published in the official China Securities Journal.
One of the researchers who compiled the report said 2006 growth now looked likely to be nearer 9 per cent after the National Bureau of Statistics earlier this week revised up more than a decade of economic growth data.
"After the government's revision of its figures, our forecast needs to be adjusted upward accordingly," the forecaster, Wang Xiaoguang, said.
He said the think-tank would stick to its forecasts on consumer prices, investment and foreign trade for this year. Its report forecast that the year-average consumer price index (CPI) for 2006 would be up only 1 per cent on 2005, when prices showed an estimated annual growth of about 2 per cent.
"In the second half of the year, CPI might enter into negative territory, so that there may be a slight deflation," the report said.
"So the focus of monetary policy should shift from preventing inflation to avoiding deflation."