IRAQ: Recent successes against Iraqi rebels may have created an impression the tide may be turning in the fight against the insurgency, but the reality is more clouded.
Shopkeepers and residents on a busy Baghdad shopping street this week pulled their own guns on a group of masked men firing at bystanders from a passing car.
It wasn't the first case of citizen retaliation, but it was one of the most visible displays of Iraqis wanting to get even.
In recent weeks there have been large Iraqi demonstrations against those suspected of being behind insurgent attacks. At the same time, Iraqi and US forces have been making their own inroads against the nearly two-year-long insurgency.
Last Sunday, US troops stood their ground as they were ambushed by 40 to 50 gunmen south of Baghdad, killing 27 rebels in an ensuing battle, while six US soldiers were wounded.
An Iraqi commando unit on Tuesday, following up on intelligence supplied by locals, raided a suspected insurgent training camp near a lake northwest of Baghdad, backed by US troops and helicopters. The Iraqi government said more than 80 guerrillas were killed and seven commandos, and touted the operation as a major blow to the insurgency.
In Mosul, in the north, about 90 suspected militants have been rounded up in the past week on the back of tip-offs from locals as Iraqi and US forces step up operations against insurgent cells in the city.
While it appears Iraqi forces are better organised and more aggressive and can now point to several successes, Iraqi officials and people on the street say it's too soon to declare that a corner has been turned.
They say the possibility more citizens will start taking the law into their own hands by attacking militants is remote - with most far too scared and preferring to leave it to the security forces - and would be undesirable.
"It's encouraging to see that the people have had enough, but our police and army have to be responsible for law and order," says Sabah Kadhim, a senior official and spokesman for the interior ministry. "We don't want rampant vigilantism."
At the same time, while he welcomes recent victories against the rebels, Kadhim is quick to put the successes in perspective, playing down suggestions that momentum has shifted yet.
"It's far too early to say that a corner has been turned," he says. "We're still developing our intelligence network, we're in the early stages. For the moment the insurgency still has legs, even if they are shorter legs."
Iraqis on the street echo those views, saying they don't think most citizens would open fire on militants, while they also think that the security forces are doing a better job. "People feel more confident in the police and the army now," said Wissam Khalid (24), an office receptionist. "They are happier to give them information about the insurgents."
Interior ministry officials say there has been a marked increase in tip-offs and information since the January 30th election - which gave most Iraqis more confidence in the country - and since the start of TV broadcasts showing militants confessing.
US and Iraqi officials believe the tide will turn, but say it may not be smooth. Kadhim says the delay in forming a government could have an impact, particularly if new ministers decide to change policies which have been producing successes.
The rate of US deaths in the Iraq war has fallen sharply since the January elections as US military leaders declare progress against the insurgency but warn of a long road ahead.
March is on pace for the lowest monthly US military death toll in 13 months and the rate of American fatalities has fallen by about 50 per cent since the parliamentary elections in which millions of Iraqis defied insurgents to cast ballots.
Defence analysts note that while violence aimed at US forces has declined in the 7½ weeks since the election, insurgent attacks on Iraqis have escalated.
They add that previous lulls in attacks on US forces in the two-year war have been followed by intense periods of violence. - (Reuters)