Differences are narrowing, leaders say

One after another they emerged from Hillsborough Castle late last night to tell the waiting press that everything was going pretty…

One after another they emerged from Hillsborough Castle late last night to tell the waiting press that everything was going pretty well really, and that while there were still some differences, these were narrowing all the time and there was the prospect of agreement within a few months.

The Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister announced there was now a opportunity "to restore the momentum behind the implementation of the agreement".

Mr Trimble called the IRA statement of intent to re-engage with the de Chastelain commission "specific progress". Mr Hume said he expected agreement on policing by June. Only Mr Gerry Adams had some complaints, condemning the exclusion of Sinn Fein ministers from North/South Ministerial Council meetings and calling again for the full implementation of Patten. But he spoke positively, too, of the IRA's statement and said he and his party were determined to make progress.

These were the same people who spent the last 10 weeks failing to agree on three key issues of demilitarisation, decommissioning and police reform. Despite a final prod from President Clinton and endless rounds of talks - involving at this stage the most able and committed negotiators - there is still deadlock.

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But that was not the tone last night. The pro-agreement parties are about to face into a British election campaign with separate competitions for hearts and minds taking place within the nationalist and unionist communities.

And ironically in the face of such a stern electoral test, they have all found a common political interest despite the lack of agreement.

All have an interest in maintaining the political institutions and facing the electorate, pointing to the progress made through their commitment to the agreement, while showing themselves to be uncompromising on the issues of principle that are involved in the current disagreement.

On none of the three issues does disagreement yet presage a crisis. On decommissioning, the IRA has said it will re-engage with de Chastelain. They have done this before: time will tell whether it will lead to further steps on the decommissioning road. But a potential process is in place.

The two governments said last night they looked forward to "early and positive reports from the IICD (Independent International Commission on Decommissioning) at an early date".

On the basis of these reports, Mr Trimble indicated, he will decide whether to lift his veto on Sinn Fein attendance at meetings of the North/South Ministerial Council.

On demilitarisation, the British government has stated a willingness to move in the context of progress on decommissioning. Again, it will take time - until after the expected May election, for example - to test how much progress is actually made here.

On policing, the first recruitment campaign aiming to take in 50 per cent Catholics and 50 per cent Protestants is under way. The new recruits are not expected to be ready to join the new force until perhaps August. Again, this leaves time for the remaining issues to be sorted out.

Finally, the political institutions last night appeared secure until after an election campaign. Mr Trimble chose to respond positively last night to the IRA move after initially adopting a dismissive tone.

He thus appears prepared to argue that his party adopt a "wait and see" approach before deciding whether to take further action against Sinn Fein, or to withdraw from any of the institutions.

The two governments and the pro-agreement parties have thus avoided a "crash" of the institutions and the political process.

It would appear that the slow peace process that began after the first IRA ceasefire in 1994 will survive, at least until the smoke clears after the Westminster contest.