PRESIDENT Jacques Chirac's decision to dissolve parliament now seems so insane that the French have resorted to pseudo Freudian analysis in an attempt to explain his behaviour.
One theory is that the President knew he would have to part with his unpopular friend and prime minister, Mr Alain Juppe, but couldn't bear to cut the knot, so he subconsciously begged the French electorate to impose the divorce on him.
Another psychiatrist explained that Mr Chirac, having fulfilled his lifelong fantasy of reaching the Elysee, was bored and needed a new challenge. Others claimed he simply wanted the left to share responsibility for austerity measures. Nobody, least of all Mr Chirac, wishes to be hated.
But when the final results yesterday gave the left an absolute majority and 60 seat lead in parliament, Mr Chirac must have felt as he was portrayed in today's Le Monde cartoon: Gulliver tethered to the ground by left wing Lilliputians. There were a few calls for Mr Chirac's resignation, mostly from the noisy National Front leader, Mr JeanMarie Le Pen, whose party helped to decimate the centreright RPR-UDF coalition.
True, Gen Charles de Gaulle resigned in 1969 after losing a referendum, but there is no sign that Mr Chirac will follow his hero's example. Opinion polls show that 60 per cent of the French want the President to remain in office. He is a younger, scrappier man than de Gaulle was in defeat, and his adaptability is legend.
Mr Chirac's willingness to bend to new circumstances came to the fore yesterday when he accepted Mr Juppe's resignation and replaced him with the Socialist, Mr Lionel Jospin, all before lunchtime. The hour long meeting with Mr Jospin seemed to augur well for their "cohabitation", even if Le Figaro newspaper, in doomsday mode, said the situation would be unbearable for both men, and predicted that Mr Jospin would do everything in his power to destabilise the President.
The French did not vote for "the left" so much as against "the RPR-UDF". They voted against giving absolute powers for the next five years to Mr Chirac and his party, which until April 21st had controlled the executive, the prime minister's office, the senate and the parliament. Politicians dislike "cohabitation", but opinion polls show that French people see it as a healthy brake on the abuse of power.
The two previous cohabitations between 1986-88 and 1993-95 both had a temporary feel about them in the run up to presidential elections. Mr Chirac's predicament is unprecedented because it will last for five years; he could in theory dissolve parliament again after June 1998, but that would make sense only if the Jospin government failed miserably and quickly. Serious disagreements - on the conduct of European, foreign and defence policy, for example could lead to a constitutional crisis. Mr Chirac and Mr Jospin may find it in their best interest to cooperate.
The French, as well as France's European partners, will be waiting to see if they can, in Mr Chirac's words, |speak with one voice" on Europe. They will have to hurry: Mr Tony Blair is scheduled to visit Paris on June 11th, followed by a June 13th FrancoGerman summit and the June 16-17th Amsterdam summit, which is supposed to complete the revision of the Maastricht Treaty.
Whoever Mr Jospin appoints as foreign minister will have to master the intricacies of EU institutional reform in days - good reason for giving the job to Mr Jacques Delors or Mr Michel Rocard, French Socialists of European stature. Mr Delors's daughter, Ms Martine Aubry, is tipped to be minister of labour. A father daughter team for two key ministries would be a popular and unprecedented step.
The Socialist campaign platform imposed four conditions for compliance with the Maastricht convergence criteria: the early participation in EMU of Italy, Spain and possibly Britain; a growth and employment pact among the 15; a "European economic government" to counterbalance the European Central Bank; and a euro not overvalued against the dollar and the yen. Mr Jospin softened his position when he said the conditions were merely a basis for discussion. His reorientation of France's European policy will be welcomed by other EU nations - particularly Italy - which are having trouble meeting the criteria.
The French seem more concerned by the domestic effects of this election - namely the RPR-UDF's leadership struggle and battle for survival, and the role played by the extreme rightwing National Front (FN). They are also asking themselves if there isn't something wrong with an electorate which has voted all five previous governments out of office at the earliest opportunity.
To rejoice in the fact that the racist FN won only one seat is to miss the point. By dividing the rightwing vote, the FN destroyed the RPR-UDF. In the past, 61 per cent of FN voters supported the Gaullists in the crucial second round, compared to only 44 per cent on Sunday. This cost the RPR-UDF at least 30 seats - seats which could have brought them neck and neck with the left.
The disarray on the right now risks driving even more voters to the FN. Its ability to win office has so far been limited by the electoral system, which works to the detriment of small parties without allies. FN officials claim it takes 3.5 million votes to send one of their candidates to parliament - compared to 15,000 votes for a member of the RPR-UDF.
But the FN does not complain too loudly about the system, because it knows that if it reaches a critical mass of about 20 per cent of voters, its representation will snowball. Voters turn to the extreme right because the traditional parties disappoint them, and the FN will be waiting like a hungry dog outside the doors of Mr Jospin's office. If the Socialists fail this time, watch out.
