The departing British Health Secretary, Mr Frank Dobson, yesterday paved the way for a major shuffle of Mr Blair's Cabinet later this week - with the spotlight falling once more on Dr Mo Mowlam's tenure at the Northern Ireland Office. Dr Mowlam had recently indicated her expectation that she would remain in the Stormont hot seat until next April. However, speculation about her possible return to "mainstream" British politics immediately followed Mr Dobson's confirmation that he would, after all, quit his Cabinet post to concentrate his efforts on winning Labour's nomination to be Mayor of London.
Speaking on the BBC's Breakfast with Frost programme, Mr Dobson said when he had originally discussed his candidacy with Mr Blair last week they had both assumed he would continue as Health Secretary until the completion of Labour's London selection process next month. However, he said: "Quite frankly, I can't do both jobs at once. I think it would be an insult to the people working in the Health Service to have a part-time Health Secretary, so I said to the Prime Minister that as he's got to change the Cabinet to replace George Robertson [who is leaving to become Secretary General of NATO] I think it only right that he appoint someone to replace me."
A Downing Street spokesman insisted Mr Blair was "perfectly comfortable" with Mr Dobson remaining in Cabinet, adding "but Frank Dobson felt he needed to devote himself to the job of campaigning."
That decision presents Mr Blair with the political judgment call on whether he can afford to lose Dr Mowlam's particular contribution as the Mitchell review of the Belfast Agreement enters its defining stage, and with a crucial debate on the future of policing to come.
On the other hand, it also affords him an opportunity to move Dr Mowlam - widely deemed to have earned a move after a gruelling 2 1/2 years - with dignity, following her determined battle to stay in the post last July amid unionist calls for her head.
There seems little doubt in Westminster circles that Dr Mowlam - who many believe had hopes of becoming foreign secretary - would welcome a move to a high-profile, big spending department like health. However, Mr Blair's disposition is unclear, and much could turn on his preference to succeed Lord Robertson at defence.
It is believed he would prefer the Scottish Secretary, and former armed forces minister, Dr John Reid, although Dr Jack Cunningham, the Cabinet "enforcer" has also been mentioned. Mr Blair could alternatively propose a direct swap involving Dr Cunningham and Dr Mowlam, maybe with the offer to combine the Cabinet office job with a new post of party chairman. However, Dr Mowlam in the past has been notably unenthusiastic about returning to perform such a role.
The other great unknown in all the speculation is whether Mr Blair is anxious to see Mr Peter Mandelson's return to Cabinet, less than a year after his enforced resignation following the revelations about his £373,000 home loan from the then paymaster general, Mr Geoffrey Robinson. Mr Mandelson has previously been touted as a potential Northern Ireland Secretary by the Ulster Unionist leader, Mr David Trimble.