A real plot against Bertie? Or just a few moaners meeting for lunch? One way or another, a key moment in Bertie Ahern's leadership of Fianna Fáil has arrived, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Reporter
In the hours after TV3 reported on Tuesday that some Fianna Fáil figures had gathered in Dublin to plot the ousting of the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, the telephones began to ring around the country. Pretending to inquire about a round of golf, or to check on some minor constituency matter, Ministers and Ministers of State cheerily spoke to colleagues - many of whom they have not called for months.
"The unspoken reason was to find out where people were: in their constituencies, or plotting in Dublin. We are all adults. We knew what the call was about," commented one TD.
Soon, it became clear that some of those who might have seemed likely to be involved in a plot, if there was one, were far away from any quiet corner of a Dublin hotel, and bemused by the news.
"Clearly, there was something going on. But it could have been a few guys who got together for lunch to moan. Maybe they oversold what they were up to. But it isn't a plot in the real sense," suggested another TD.
Told late Tuesday that his name was being touted as a successor, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Brian Cowen was furious, bluntly telling people to stop undermining the Taoiseach.
However, the Dublin gathering - whether it happened, or whether it did not, or whether it simply marked the sharing of bitterness over a sandwich and a pint - could mark a line in Ahern's leadership.
"Look, Bertie can't be absolutely sure that there is nothing going on. In future, he will have to look and wonder if people are up to something. Paranoia is a dangerous thing in politics," said a backbencher.
Early on Wednesday, TDs woke to a lecture on discipline on RTÉ's Morning Ireland from Minister of State Willie O'Dea: "It was a bit bloody rich coming from him, given the times he has gone offside," fumed one colleague.
By then, however, TDs had come to the judgment that a plot was not afoot this time. Quickly, many issued declarations of support for Ahern, even if more than a few lacked conviction.
"People are only prepared to act if something happens: if Nice goes down, if the polls plummet further, if something pops out of the tribunals that can't be handled . . . They are not in the business of making it happen," said one TD.
Left without ministerial jobs, backbenchers - including some who are now convinced that they will never have a future under Ahern - have been allowed to nurse their wounds, and brood.
The full resumption of Dáil business next Wednesday could settle tempers: "A lot of the guys took the foot off the pedal after the election, because they were knackered. Too much relaxation can lead to fantasies though," said one Dublin TD.
Next week, Ahern will have the chance to buy favour when he announces 43 appointments of chairs, vice chairs and convenors of a plethora of Oireachtas committees, which add up to €12,700 a year to a TD's salary. Already, however, there are signals that some highly-regarded hopefuls will be disappointed once more - even though Ahern will try hard to smooth their disappointment.
The list of The Unhappy is long, though few are as vocal as Dublin South West TD, Conor Lenihan, who masks his fury about being left on the benches behind complaints about Fianna Fáil's current performance.
Cavan/Monaghan's Brendan Smith, Clare TD Tony Killeen, Carlow/Kilkenny's John McGuinness and Cork South Central's Billy Kelleher have more reason than most to feel hard done by, on ability.
However, it would be a mistake to assume that frustrated ambition in all cases equals a willingness to plot to topple Bertie Ahern. Some see hardly better prospects under Cowen. Others dislike holding a dagger towards any FF leader.
"Things would be very different if there was a leader-in-waiting from outside of the Cabinet, as happened with Charlie. But all of the 'possibles' are inside. None of them are going to put their head over the parapet," said a TD.
However, the well of unhappiness still stands. If the Nice Treaty referendum is lost, and if the economy continues to head south, running into the Budget, life for Bertie Ahern will become deeply unpleasant.
One TD declared: "He has lost credibility. He was extremely popular with the people. A lot of that has gone. All this talk of meetings could be a shot across his bows. If Nice is lost, it will raise its head again."
If doomsday arrives, backbenchers will not, perhaps, be the first to move. Instead, the threat could be closer to Ahern, among some of those occupying Ministers of State jobs.
Some are unhappy that they did not get higher; others, such as Síle de Valera, Jim McDaid, and, particularly, Galway East TD Frank Fahey, because they are no longer in Cabinet.
In addition, there are former Ministers of State, such as Tipperary South's Noel Davern, who are still smarting from being sacked without even a telephone call of explanation from the Taoiseach.
Recently, the Taoiseach met with Davern (who did not know that he was sacked until the moment the junior ministers were appointed) to calm the situation: "The meeting did not go well," commented one colleague.
One curious and unpredictable ingredient in the mixture is Fianna Fáil's 21 new backbenchers, led, on occasions, by Dublin North's Jim Glennon and Dún Laoghaire's Barry Andrews.
Usually, a new crop of TDs wanders the Leinster House corridors for months. But the current generation is different: "In the main, they are able. And they fancy themselves.
"Up to now, new guys tended to take it as read that they would not get quick promotion under Bertie. And they tended to follow the lead of older fellows. That can't be taken for granted," said one TD.
However, the idea that Cowen is plotting, or allowing others to plot on his behalf, stands on weak ground. During his career to date, the Offaly man has suffered from an excess of loyalty, if anything.
He was sitting in the Dáil on Wednesday evening, when he was told that former taoiseach, Albert Reynolds, was appearing on RTÉ's Six One News, going over his suspicions of Ray Burke back in the early 1990s.
"Cowen put his head in hands, saying 'Jaysus, would he stop all that'. He would have wanted to be an Oscar winner to have been pretending. Brian Cowen is not a plotter," one TD favourable to him firmly declared.
Left holding the Nice Treaty "baby" after the departure of P.J. Mara, Cowen has already added some element of life into Fianna Fáil's campaign: "He has put a bit of jizz into a few people," said another TD.
In any event, the 42-year-old former solicitor does not have to rush. Clearly, he is Ahern's preferred successor. The granting of the Fianna Fáil deputy leadership is but the latest sign of that.
In fact, an early lead in the succession stakes - most notably ahead of Micheál Martin, Charlie McCreevy, Dermot Ahern and Noel Dempsey - may do Cowen as much harm as good.
"There are a few guys, particularly Micheál Martin, who will be miffed to see Cowen being accepted as the heir apparent. They may ask, 'How the hell did that happen?'. All of that can cause bad blood," said one wily, experienced backbencher.
The leadership speculation about Cowen followed the Parliamentary Party meeting in Killarney when TDs, including him, skipped off after dinner for pints with Jackie Healy-Rae in the Fáilte Hotel.
There, the wily Independent, who is still keen to keep his ties open with his former party so that his son might pick up a party nomination in Kerry South, introduced Cowen as "the next leader of Fianna Fáil and the next taoiseach"'.
However, a leadership heave now hardly suits Cowen. Safely ensconced in the Department of Foreign Affairs, he can watch his competitors struggle with high spending ministries in more sombre times.
Besides, the clock is ticking on Ahern's leadership, even if it should take a couple of years. So why rush? If the economy is facing a difficult few years, then why not let others take the flak?