SENATOR Bob Dole is the favourite to fend off Mr Pat Buchanan's challenge and win today's pivotal Republican primary in South Carolina, whose importance in the race for the nomination extends beyond the 37 delegates the state will send to this summer's convention in San Diego.
On the eve of voting, polls put Mr Dole clearly ahead of the former Reagan speech writer and conservative commentator, suggesting that a strong Dole organisation here and the support of the Republican hierarchy may outweigh Mr Buchanan's appeal to the Christian right and blue collar workers fearful for their jobs.
Predictably, it was Mr Buchanan, with his red blooded denunciation of abortion and America's moral decay, who drew the loudest cheers of the four major candidates at a Christian coalition rally on Thursday night.
But Mr Dole avoided disaster, as he did earlier in the day at a televised candidates' debate mainly notable for some vicious exchanges between the two lesser contenders, the publisher Mr Steve Forbes and the ex-governor of Tennessee, Mr Lamar Alexander.
For Mr Dole and Mr Alexander the stakes here are enormous. With his campaign close to the maximum permitted federal spending ceiling, the Senate majority leader must secure a victory if he is to break clear in New England, New York and the rest of the south, which hold their own primaries over the next 10 days.
Anything less than a second place here and victory in Georgia, on Tuesday would surely doom, Mr Alexander, who has yet to win a primary and will run out of money if potential financial backers lose faith. Yet he appears to be running no better than third, and could be out of the contest after March 12th.
No such worries bother Mr Forbes, who has indicated he will continue right through to San Diego. Since he is spending his own money (an estimated $25 million so far), he is not affected by the $37 million limit that may soon hobble Mr Dole's media efforts in states like New York, Florida and Texas which lie immediately ahead and especially California on March 26th, if the race is not settled by then.
Also on this weekend Wyoming is holding caucuses to select the 12 delegates it will send to the August convention in San Diego. Again Mr Dole is favourite, but Mr Forbes could make a showing in this traditionally anti government and libertarian western state.