Dollar gains ground on Fed plans

The dollar today recouped some ground lost from a renewed focus on US quantitative easing, and was helped by short covering, …

The dollar today recouped some ground lost from a renewed focus on US quantitative easing, and was helped by short covering, while the euro fell back towards channel support ahead of a meeting of European finance ministers.

The greenback pulled up off a three-week low against the yen and two-weeks lows against the euro set on Friday after disappointing US jobs data and a report that Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke did not rule out bond purchases beyond those planned.

The comments, which were then aired today, served as a reminder that the Fed's second round of quantitative easing, in which it plans to buy $600 billion in assets, remains a weight on the greenback, although the resulting easy liquidity is supportive of risk trades.

As the dollar shed 1.5 per cent against the yen on Friday and more than 1 per cent against a basket of currencies, it had scope for a bounce in thin volume today, analysts said.

"Friday's moves were so rapid that it is natural to have a bit of position unwinding," said Keiji Matsumoto, strategist at Nikko Cordial Securities. "There's also a feeling that there could be more bad news from the euro zone."

The dollar rose 0.4 per cent to 82.88 yen, climbing off Friday's three-week low of 82.52 yen, and it gained 0.3 per cent on the index.

Still, just as euro zone debt concerns return periodically to dog the euro, US asset-buying will haunt the dollar.

"The market is going to continue to view US quantitative easing as being a driving force," said Greg Gibbs, FX strategist at RBS in Sydney.

Mr Bernanke said it could be four to five years before the US returned to a more normal jobless rate but that a double-dip recession was not likely.

With QEII on track, commodity-linked and higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars kept some of the gains they made on Friday against both the dollar and yen. Gold and silver were buoyant, with silver at its strongest levels since early 1980.

The Australian dollar, which surged 1.7 per cent to $0.9938 on Friday, gave back 0.4 per cent to $0.9892 and ticked up 0.2 per cent on the yen at 81.97 yen.

The euro, battered in November by worries about peripheral euro zone economies' debt levels, had also found support last week from European Central Bank purchases of peripheral economies' bonds.

But after climbing 1.5 per cent on Friday and reaching as far as $1.3438, it beat a retreat today, but managed to hold above support at around $1.3335 from a rising channel on its hourly charts.

Dealers said automatic sell stops also lay at about $1.3330/35.

Euro zone finance ministers meet later today and will face pressure to increase the size of a €750 billion safety net for crisis-hit members in order to halt contagion in the single currency region. That will be followed by a meeting tomorrow of ministers from the broader 27-nation European Union, who are expected to formally approve an €85 billion aid package for Ireland and discuss the reform of EU budget rules.

"Given how frail sentiment remains, the market is holding out hope for some broader plan to be put in place and a widening of that stability fund in case another one of the peripherals falls over," said Sue Trinh, currency strategist at RBC in Hong Kong.

The dollar index, a gauge of its performance against six major currencies, was hovering just above a two-week low of 79.063 set on Friday.

Reuters