Presuming David Trimble votes along party lines on June 7th, the UUP leader's "X" on a ballot in his local polling station in Lisburn will help his troublesome anti-agreement colleague, Jeffrey Donaldson, to retain the Lagan Valley Westminster seat.
"The question of who any individual votes for is a matter between their conscience and the ballot box, but I would hope that all members of the UUP would support me," says Mr Donaldson.
Both men were successors to Lord Molyneaux. Mr Trimble, MP in the neighbouring constituency of Upper Bann, took over the reins of the party leadership. Mr Donaldson, Molyneaux's aide and protege, the Lagan Valley seat. Mr Donaldson says Mr Trimble has not made any recent appearances at the local UUP advice centre. Little surprise, as Mr Donaldson, the youngest incumbent at 38, emerged as a major political thorn in his leader's side in 1998 after his decision to walk out of negotiations before the Belfast Agreement was signed.
Since then Mr Donaldson has adopted an anti-agreement stance and positioned himself as a possible future UUP leader.
Mr Donaldson believes he has the finger on the unionist pulse and says he has been encouraged by the support on the doorsteps for his demand for a tougher line on IRA decommissioning.
"I think at least in Lagan Valley I have a fair reflection of what people are thinking," he says. There would not be a swing to the DUP in his constituency. In 1997 the DUP re-entered the constituency for the first time since 1983. Mr Edwin Poots took enough votes from Mr Donaldson to prevent him retaining Mr Molyneaux's majority of 23,000.
Mr Donaldson still managed a convincing margin of 17,000 votes over his nearest rival, the Alliance Party's deputy leader, Mr Seamus Close. Mr Donald son's tally of 24,560 - 55 per cent of the vote - outstripped the combined total of all other candidates by 4,810.
However, he stresses nothing will be taken for granted in the run-up to June 7th. "I am aiming to achieve one vote more than the nearest candidate. You must fight every election as if it is the most marginal seat."
But as pundits speculate how many seats the Ulster Unionists could lose in marginal constituencies like West Tyrone and North Belfast, the predominantly middle-class Protestant constituency of Lagan Valley represents a safe harbour from the electoral storm.
From the working-class estates in south Lisburn to the picturesque village of Hills borough, Co Down, where the Northern Secretary resides, there is an underlying loyalty to all things British, with Catholics just 13 per cent of the population. The constituency also has the fastest-growing population in the North, with house prices also climbing steadily. Mr Seamus Close of Alliance, who topped the poll at the 1998 Assembly elections with over 6,000 votes when Mr Donald son was refused party permission to stand, claims he has crossed the sectarian divide in Lagan Valley. "It is something I am very proud of. People should vote for the person, not the tribe," he says.
Indeed, Mr Close, a public representative in the area since 1973, has urged all pro-agreement voters to support him to oust Mr Donaldson. "I can assure people that I don't blow in the wind. All it requires is for those who voted Yes to support me and we can win the seat," he says.
The DUP's Mr Poots will be looking for an increase in the 6,000 votes he snatched from the UUP in the last Westminster outing. The SDLP candidate, Ms Patricia Lewsley, and Mr Paul Butler, of Sinn Fein, both hope to increase the share of the vote taken by their parties in the Assembly elections.
At local government level, the Ulster Unionists are working to maintain their domination of Lisburn District Council, where they hold 12 of 30 seats.
The fortunes of the Ulster Democratic Party, linked to the UDA, which holds two seats on the council, will also be closely followed. Mr Gary McMichael and Mr Davy Adams were forced to stand as independents after an "administrative error" at party headquarters left their name and logo unregistered with the electoral commission.