Downing Street is today playing down Sunday newspaper reports saying that British Prime Minister Tony Blair may call an early election in February.
Most political commentators expect Mr Blair to seek a new mandate in May 2005. To go to the polls earlier, after well under four years since the last election, would lead to charges that the prime minister was running scared.
The Sunday Telegraphand Sunday Timesnewspapers said Mr Blair's chief policy strategist, Mr Alan Milburn, had ordered an advertising blitz in the new year - a move that does not necessarily show a winter election will take place.
"This is idle speculation," a Downing Street spokesman. The reports suggested the prime minister would try to capitalise on successful Iraqi elections in late January to present his main electoral weakness - the invasion and rebuilding operation - as a success.
The strategy of hoping for a "Baghdad bounce" would also rely on Iraqi elections going smoothly, without much bloodshed, something analysts say is far from assured.
A Labour party official said he had heard nothing to suggest a February poll was likely.
An opinion poll for the Independent on Sundaynewspaper put support Mr Blair's Labour party at 39 per cent, six points ahead of the Conservatives, and on course for a comfortable third successive election win.
That could foster the argument among Mr Blair's advisers of why wait? But the portents for February polls are not good.
The only February election held in recent times was called by Mr Edward Heath in 1974. He lost.
Further back, Labour Prime Minister Mr Clement Atlee's majority was all but wiped out in February 1950. He lost power the following year.
British political orthodoxy has it that turnout slumps at polls held during cold, inclement weather, something which in the past would have heavily hit the Labour vote.
Conservative chairman Liam Fox said: "The public will be rightly suspicious of a government with a huge parliamentary majority which wants to hold an election before four years."
"It looks as if Tony Blair wants to cut and run before voters realise he is never going to deliver on health, education and crime," he added.
British government's can serve for up to five years before seeking re-election. Mr Blair has said he wants to serve a full third term but not a fourth.
PA