Third-level colleges and secondary schools will face a major shortage of students over the next 15 years, with the number of young people in the population set to fall by almost 20 per cent, according to a new report.
The number of people aged between 15 and 24 will fall from 660,000 in 2001 to 530,000 in 2016, according to an Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) report by Prof Jerry Sexton.
This drop of almost 20 per cent will pose a serious challenge to schools and especially third-level colleges, which will find it extremely difficult to expand or maintain present numbers, said Prof Sexton.
His report predicts the population decrease will start to hit colleges within the next two to three years. The youth population is at its peak, it says, and the fall in historical terms will be "extremely significant".
The group representing school managers, the Joint Managerial Body (JMB), said the number of pupils attending voluntary secondary schools had fallen on average by 6,000 a year since 1997.
The general secretary of the JMB, Mr George O'Callaghan, said schools were "very much alive to the challenge of falling numbers". He said many schools were seeking to get involved in adult education as a partial substitute for day-time schooling.
The ESRI report comes at a time when many colleges are finding it difficult to fill places and schools are competing furiously for students. The numbers taking the Leaving Certificate have also fallen in recent years and this could cause a reduction in points needed for entry to some third-level courses.
Prof Sexton's report, Demo- graphic and Labour Market Changes in the Medium Term, was prepared for the Institutes of Technology (ITs) and was delivered to their directors at a recent private strategy meeting in Co Clare. Some directors were reportedly surprised by the scale of the population falls.
Primary schools would not experience such problems, Prof Sexton told The Irish Times, because the child population (below 15) would rise from 2006.
The ITs are likely to be worst affected by the falls, he said, because there is less demand for their courses than for those at universities.
IT directors who have spoken to The Irish Times said they hoped adult learners could replace school-leavers in their colleges. Mr John Gallagher, director of Carlow IT, said: "We have heard the demographic projections and we are hoping to recruit new types of learner."
However, Prof Sexton said the population falls would be so large it would be almost impossible to replace all school-leavers with adults. A huge increase in adult learners could also pose problems in the economy generally. "It would have to be looked at in the context of other areas which are already stretched for personnel, like the health service," he said.
Emmet Oliver can be reached at: eoliver@irish-times.ie