1997: FF 42.83%; FG 14.51%; Lab 8.49%; GP 3.51%; SF 6.65%; WP 1.42%; Others 22.59%.Outgoing TDs: Bertie Ahern and Marian McGennis (FF); Jim Mitchell (FG); Tony Gregory (Ind).
Will Taoiseach Bertie Ahern have the highest first-preference vote here, as his predecessor, John Bruton, managed in Meath in 1997? The Ahern surplus should bring in his running mate, former TD Dr Dermot Fitzpatrick. But what of Fine Gael's Deputy Leader, Jim Mitchell? Illness and boundary changes have hurt his hopes, so early tallies will indicate if he is vulnerable to a challenge by Sinn Féin's Nicky Kehoe or Labour's Joe Costello. Kehoe's bid for the Dáil will be hurt if FF's Fitzpatrick manages to secure, or increase his 2,000 strong personal support base in Cabra - though SF has mounted a major battle to win here. The landscape has significantly changed since boundary revisions were made in 1998. Parts of Glasnevin, Drumcondra, Cabra, the North Docks and Ballybough have been added. The changes led Marian McGennis to move across the Liffey to Dublin South-Central.
Tallies from the apartment blocks now featuring heavily in the landscape of the constituency will make fascinating reading, particularly if, contrary to expectations, their younger, better-off occupants have made the journey to the polling stations. Tony Gregory, whose vote has been dropping, cannot afford any further losses. It will be interesting to note whether Kehoe erodes Gregory's traditional vote from the North Strand and the East Wall.