Dublin City Council is set to fall tonight if the city manager does not make substantial changes to new waste management charges.
Councillors no longer have the power to determine waste charges in the city budget. However they look likely to refuse to pass the estimates tonight in protest at the increases in bin charges which could see some householders paying €155 more than last year.
If the council fails to pass the estimates it faces dissolution by the Minister for the Environment, Mr Roche.
Of the 52-seat council, the 10 Sinn Féin members have decided to vote en bloc against the estimates. The Fianna Fáil group plans to abstain, leaving 40 councillors to vote if there is a full attendance at the meeting.
With Sinn Féin in the "No" camp, it will take just 11 more votes to defeat the budget. Cllr Mick Rafferty, an Independent councillor and anti-bin charge campaigner, will vote against the estimates, and his colleagues, Independents Cllr Joan Collins and Cllr Vincent Jackson, are likely to follow suit.
Labour and Fine Gael have control of the council with 25 seats between them, 15 held by Labour. While the majority in both parties seem eager to pass the estimates, it will take a combined force of just eight, voting as a bin-charge protest or on another local issue, to block them.
Fine Gael has given the city manager, Mr John Fitzgerald, proposals for altering the waste charge.
His response is likely to determine the way most of the party votes. However constituency pressures could sway a number towards a No vote regardless.
"It's going to be a difficult night. Individual members are in a difficult position because it's a very high-profile, emotive issue," said Cllr Paschal Donohoe, a member of the council's environment committee.
Fine Gael is seeking more recycling facilities to allow householders to reduce their "black bin" waste and the associated charge; a level of relief for people with large families; an increased household junk collection; and an extension of the waiver system.
A greater level of opposition to the estimates is likely to come from within the Labour group. The party has a history of voting unanimously against bin charges. The expulsion from the party of former lord mayor Cllr Dermot Lacey was mooted when he broke the whip and voted for the estimates to stop the council falling two years ago.
Labour will have its final group meeting this evening. However, group leader Cllr Kevin Humphreys said councillors would be voting individually. "I'm hoping the estimates will be passed, but we're going to have an open vote and I expect them to be passed."
