The British and Irish governments are developing a fresh two-stage initiative on Northern Ireland which could see the Democratic Unionist Party in direct negotiations with Sinn Féin by the end of the year.
This emerged last night ahead of tomorrow's meeting in Dublin between the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair.
Political leaders on all sides in the North had condemned the cancellation, on the initiative of the Taoiseach, of this week's scheduled "proximity talks".
However - following separate British and Irish discussions with Sinn Féin and the DUP over the past week - expectations are again high that Mr Blair and Mr Ahern will lead a newly intensive round of political talks in the immediate aftermath of the European elections in June.
Further evidence of a new, if still cautious, mood emerged last night with confirmation that Mr David Trimble would assist any DUP/Sinn Féin negotiation by holding confidential talks with the DUP leader, the Rev Ian Paisley, about the Ulster Unionist Party's failed negotiation with Sinn Féin in the run-up to last November's Assembly election.
At the same time, it is understood the SDLP is developing proposals which would allow the Stormont Assembly to resume limited functions, should the DUP/Sinn Féin standoff prove protracted. However, in statements in the House of Commons and Lords this week, British ministers made clear their continuing commitment to an "inclusive" process, and it is the prospects for an inclusive Northern Ireland Executive which will dominate tomorrow's talks between Mr Ahern and Mr Blair.
The Irish Times understands that a two-stage process is envisaged. The first stage, which would be designed to meet the DUP's terms for direct engagement with Sinn Féin, would require substantial movement by the IRA in terms of "acts of completion" and by London in respect of commitments given in last year's pre-election negotiation and in the earlier British-Irish Joint Declaration.
During this first stage of developments, the DUP would expect a transparent act of IRA decommissioning, together with a timetable for the completion of the decommissioning process, coupled with a cessation of all paramilitary and criminal activities to be verified by a further report by the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC) at the end of the year.
The DUP has made it clear that if the second stage is reached, its intention will be to negotiate fundamental changes to the existing political structures as part of its commitment to "an alternative" to the Belfast Agreement.
Dublin sources believe the DUP is "setting the bar too high" for republicans. The view in Whitehall, however, is that "the bar is high anyway" following last week's first report from the IMC implicating Sinn Féin and the Progressive Unionist Party with continuing paramilitary activities.
Moreover, it appears the door to immediate and phased progress might be unlocked by disclosure of the detailed understandings entered into by the two governments, Sinn Féin and the Ulster Unionists during last October's failed negotiation.
In the Commons on Wednesday, Dr Paisley pressed Northern Ireland Security minister Mr Ian Pearson to disclose what "went wrong" on that occasion: "The statement [by the two governments] that was due to be made was not made. It was argued among the parties involved that certain promises had been made and given and were not kept. Does not the minister think that the time has come to announce to the House what those promises were? Why have the general public been kept in the dark about this very important matter?"
On the same day Mr Trimble wrote to Dr Paisley, outlining the general UUP position of last autumn, telling him: "In the event of there being serious negotiations between the DUP and republicans, we are ready to join in, and, in that context would be willing to share with you, on a confidential basis, our assessment of the positions of other parties and the possibilities for a positive outcome."