1997: FF 47.04%; FG 15.6%; Lab 11.13%; GP 4.16%; DL 10.08%; WP 1.33%; Others 10.66%.Ougoing TDs: Noel Ahern and Pat Carey (FF), Roisin Shortall and Proinsias De Rossa (Lab).
Sinn Féin's Cllr Dessie Ellis is expected to cut into Pat Carey's (Fianna Fáil) Finglas base, but can he secure enough first preferences to carry him through? Carey's running-mate, Noel Ahern - the Taoiseach's brother - will poll massively on the first count, so Carey can hope for a hefty transfer. Ellis could also hurt outoing Labour TD Roisin Shortall, though Proinsias De Rossa's absence should ensure her return. In 1997, Fine Gael's two candidates got nearly 6,000 first preferences. On his own, Brendan Brady should struggle to match that. A failure to go close to this figure will mean FG is in trouble in Dublin.