Constituency profile: North Ian Paisley's successor seems assured of a seat, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
The DUP leader, the Rev Ian Paisley, was in city centre Belfast on Monday evening surrounded by 100 of his Free Presbyterian churchmen portraying Archbishop Seán Brady - or "Mr Brady," as he called him - as the representative of the "antichrist", Pope John Paul II.
It was vintage Paisley, very vintage in fact. It was a long time since we had heard this sort of sectarian rant against the Catholic Church.
But will such unashamed religious intolerance make a blind bit of difference to the DUP candidate Mr Jim Allister's chances in the European Parliament election? Almost certainly not.
It might even encourage any of the ultra-strict fundamentalists out there who were fearful that the Doc was going soft in old age and were hesitant about voting at all. Monday's demonstration may have reassured them that their orthodox Calvinist views on life, love and politics are still incarnate in the DUP.
It certainly seems predestined that Mr Allister will be elected as Dr Paisley's successor in Europe. Dr Paisley topped the poll in the past five European elections in the North, achieving first preference votes that were way above what the DUP won in all other elections - apart from the most recent elections, of course.
That didn't mean that all Paisley supporters would happily equate the Catholic Primate to the "antichrist". No. Because unionists, many of them Ulster Unionist Party supporters, voting Dr Paisley first in all those Euro polls were making a simple, clear statement: "it's about the union, stupid". European elections thus transmuted into mini border polls where even moderate unionists could vote for the "hard man" to illustrate to nationalists that if it ever came to the crunch there would be no surrender on the link with Britain.
It nearly backfired in the last Euro poll, however, where Mr John Hume was only 2,000 votes short of Dr Paisley's total of 193,000. Catholic voters also knew it was about the union, and were happy to play the border poll game to make an opposite point.
This time there is no Ian Paisley and no John Hume. DUP people, though, are confident that Mr Allister is a shoo-in to fill Dr Paisley's shoes. They had the machine and they put in the work. While Mr Allister will never have the Big Man's personality, he has received an enthusiastic response on the ground. He should be elected on the first count.
The former SDLP Belfast lord mayor, Mr Martin Morgan, has campaigned well both on the streets and on the airwaves, but he must know that this time the nationalist wind is behind the Sinn Féin candidate, Ms Bairbre de Brún. Sinn Féin, too, has the greater machine and motivation and Ms de Brún also has a good chance of being returned on the first count.
The big question here is which of these candidates - Mr Allister or Ms de Brún - will top the poll. Sinn Féin was only 15,000 votes behind the DUP in last November's Assembly elections which, allowing for occasional unionist apathy in the east of Northern Ireland, is a figure that could be reined in. Again, though, the DUP is confident that its strategy of making the poll-topping issue such a die-in-ditch matter will work with the faithful on polling day tomorrow.
It could be very close between the Sinn Féin and DUP runners but Mr Allister should be first past the post.
After that, it gets interesting. The Ulster Unionist candidate, Mr Jim Nicholson, was returned in the last three European elections on Dr Paisley's second-preference votes. His campaign this time though has been lacklustre and he has appeared uncomfortable in TV and radio debates and interviews. Equally, the DUP has not gone out of its way to encourage its supporters to transfer to him.
In contrast, the Independent candidate and former head of the Ulster Farmers' Union, Mr John Gilliland, is making an impression throughout the large constituency. His posters are everywhere. He has the support of Alliance and the Workers' Party and genuinely believes he can take a seat. Failing that, he would be disappointed if he did not exceed 60,000 first preferences, which would be 20,000 votes more than any "non-tribal" candidate ever achieved in European elections.
With his farming background he may eat into some of Mr Nicholson's vote. Journalist and socialist Mr Eamon McCann has also waged a pugnacious, effective campaign and may poll quite strongly, and Ms Lindsay Whitcroft has endeavoured to keep the name of the Greens alive in Northern Ireland. Were Mr Nicholson's vote to collapse, Mr Morgan's to poll above the 17 per cent achieved by the SDLP in the Assembly election and Mr Gilliland to deliver on his promise, then the final seat would be unpredictable.
Mr Nicholson, in the end, should be elected behind Mr Allister and Ms de Brún.