DUP's foes united by wish to see it do badly

Home to the shipyard, Short Brothers and Stormont, East Belfast has long been a heartland of unionism

Home to the shipyard, Short Brothers and Stormont, East Belfast has long been a heartland of unionism. While other constituencies have a broader religious mix, there are few Catholics here.

The combined SDLP and Sinn Fein vote in last year's Westminster election was a meagre 4 per cent. There are divisions in the area, though - class ones. East Belfast stretches from the impressive villas of Cherry Valley to the narrow streets of the Newtownards Road, where the UDA headquarters can be found.

Both the Yes and No sides in the referendum claimed victory in the area on the basis of private polls. The battle is continuing in the Assembly elections. Some of the city's best-known politicians are standing.

In the Yes camp is the senior UUP talks negotiator and referendum campaign director, Mr Reg Empey. Alliance leader, Lord Alderdice and Progressive Unionist Party leader, Mr David Ervine, have also weighed in.

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On the No side is the DUP deputy leader, Mr Peter Robinson and one of the party's most popular councillors, Mr Sammy Wilson. Five of the six seats are easy to predict - the DUP will take two, the UUP and Alliance one each, and Mr Ervine should also be elected.

The real fight will be for the sixth seat. The UUP and Alliance seem set to slug it out and the DUP's third candidate, Mr John Norris, has an outside chance.

Alliance press officer Councillor Richard Good (25) hopes he will be successful. Lord Alderdice will undoubtedly be elected and Mr Good thinks his surplus, combined with tactical voting by SDLP supporters, who have no chance of having a candidate elected, will secure a second seat for Alliance.

"This is a big name election," he says, "but I bring the advantage of youth. Voters are delighted a young person is standing." Mr Good stresses he is no outsider - the son of a Methodist minister, he grew up in East Belfast.

Leading the UUP charge is Mr Empey, a softly spoken, mild-mannered man, and one of Mr David Trimble's most loyal and trusted aides. A key UUP strategist during the talks, he was instrumental in encouraging Mr Trimble to hold his nerve and remain in the negotiations.

"The people voted Yes in the referendum," he says, "now they need to finish off the job and elect candidates who will make the Assembly work."

However, Mr Empey's stance on the agreement is not shared by all his UUP running mates. While Mr Ian Adamson, a former Lord Mayor, supported the agreement, Mr Jim Rodgers voted No. Mr Rodgers says he is not "a wrecker" but is concerned about prisoner releases and wants prior decommissioning. Mr Rodgers and Mr Adamson will not both be elected. It is in the leadership's interest that the Yes man wins. Mr Rodgers is better known locally but Mr Adamson has the advantage of being first on the ballot paper.

The DUP is the largest local party. The UUP, PUP and Alliance are largely united by an unspoken desire to see the DUP do badly. That's easier said than done.

As MP for East Belfast and a prolific constituency worker, Mr Robinson has a huge personal following. His party is under pressure in the election with the PUP aiming to eat into its working-class votes and the UUP and Alliance hoping to build on the referendum result.

But Mr Robinson has every confidence the people of East Belfast will not let the DUP down. The party's formidable election machine is already in motion. The next fortnight should be lively.

As Mr Empey says: "It promises to be quite a scrap."

Candidates Peter Robinson, Sammy Wilson, John Norris (DUP); Reg Empey, Jim Rodgers, Ian Adamson (UUP); John Alderdice, Richard Good (Alliance); David Ervine, Dawn Purvis (PUP); Robert Girvan (UDP); Denny Vitty (UK Unionists); Peter Jones (SDLP); Joe O'Donnell (Sinn Fein); Lesley Donaldson (Conservative); Pearl Sagar (Women's Coalition); Joe Bell (WP); David Collins (Natural Law Party); David Bleakley (Lab); John Lawrence (Energy)

Westminster election: DUP 43 per cent; UUP 25 per cent; Alliance 24 per cent; Conservatives 2 per cent; Sinn Fein 2 per cent; SDLP 2 per cent; Workers' Party 1 per cent.