East Belfast is yet another constituency where the DUP entertains great ambitions. It has two seats and is aiming for a third. To achieve that goal, its deputy leader, Mr Peter Robinson, might need to curb his excessive personal vote-getting capability. Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor, reports.
He will top the poll with a thumping majority, perhaps double that of the next candidate, if previous elections are anything to go by. Remember the 1988 Assembly election: he won 11,219 votes, his running mate Sammy Wilson got only 633, yet was returned on the 12th count.
The DUP is trying to manage its vote better this time so that Mr Robinson also brings home Assembly election newcomers and relative unknowns Mr Robin Newton and Mr Harry Toan. Mr Robinson must be less greedy, which, electorially at least, goes very much against the grain.
The DUP's main target is the PUP leader Mr David Ervine. He "unequivocally condemned" the recent UVF murder of John Allen, but that could still do damage to his election prospects.
The UVF is linked to the PUP and were Mr Ervine to lose, it would cause rumblings within that organisation. Everyone saw how the UDA further degenerated into lawlessness and violence when its political representatives, the Ulster Democratic Party, failed to return anyone to the last Assembly.
Mr Ervine is campaigning hard to hold on to that seat. In 1988 he won a comfortable 14 per cent quota vote, but that PUP vote slipped to 10 per cent in the 2001 Westminster election and 7 per cent in the local elections that year. It will be a tight tussle between the DUP and PUP but Mr Ervine might just shade it.
The Ulster Unionists should retain two seats, one for Sir Reg Empey, and the second decided by another battle for the transfers between former lord mayor Mr Jim Rodgers and Mr Michael Copeland.
This was former Alliance leader Lord Alderdice's seat. He was second to Mr Robinson last time. A hard act to follow, but Ms Naomi Long reckons she can hold what it took Alliance many years to cement. Unless there is an absolute crash of the Alliance vote, she should be returned.