It's the end of the music industry as we know it: record companies will collapse, artists will lose millions in royalties, A & R men will throw themselves out of tall buildings, and the entire recorded music output of the past century will be available free at piratebootleg.com. And all because of a tiny, hand-held device which can download MP3 files from the Internet.
Behind the media hype surrounding MP3, however, is a tiny backup file of truth. The advent of downloadable music on the Internet will mean big changes for the music industry, but pundits can't seem to agree on exactly what those changes will be.
Some predict the demise of the big record companies, as music becomes cheaper and more accessible to all. Others believe it will spell the death of small, independent labels, as big multinationals move in and tighten their stranglehold on the World Wide Web.
New artists will lose out, say some, because the big guns will play it safe and stick with surefire, big-selling stars. New artists will win hands down, say others, because the Net will allow them to sidestep the usual distribution channels and get their music heard by the public at large.
The only real losers in this new Net scenario, however, will be the music biz dinosaurs who refuse to turn and face the strange. MP3 needn't hasten record companies' extinction, but the industry will still have to adapt if it's going to survive in the brave new world of e-music.
Creation Records boss Alan McGee had no qualms about making the leap into cyberspace, quitting his own label late last year and setting up a new company to distribute new music on the Net. McGee's e-vangelical stance is in sharp contrast to the attitude of Oasis, Creation's biggest cash cow. In an interview with this paper, Noel Gallagher admitted that he knew nothing about the Internet, and cared even less about the hundreds of unofficial Oasis websites which were being shut down by parent company, Sony.
The record companies' biggest fear is breach of copyright, and they tend to shut down websites which illegally copy sounds, lyrics and notation. Most big labels have entire departments devoted to monitoring the Web for piracy, and one company, Time-Warner, has even merged with AOL, marking new inroads for music distribution on the Net.
While record companies are tightening up their protection of artists' copyright on the Web, some pirates still manage to slip through the Net. The Cure's latest album, Bloodflowers, for instance, was available for download on the Internet weeks before its official release, and without the blessing of the band's label, Universal.
The MP3 threat, however, according to Universal's Sharon Dunne, is tiny compared to the billion-dollar industry in counterfeit CDs. "Counterfeiting CDs is easier than getting it on the Net," says Dunne. "You can just go down Grafton Street and buy it out of a suitcase in five minutes, whereas it would take hours to download from the Net."
The piracy debate is hotting up, however, with the arrival of Napster, a software programme invented by 19-year-old American student Shawn Fanning, which allows users to swap MP3 music files by turning their PCs into servers. When the Napster software is installed, it gives you access to any other PC which also has Napster, allowing you to pick and choose from millions of MP3 files.
The Recorded Industry Association of America is taking Napster.com to court, saying that the software facilitates easy exchange of unauthorised music files, and that the company is encouraging copyright violation. Napster.com's lawyers, however, argue that since Napster is merely a software programme, the company cannot control how it it used, and therefore cannot be held responsible for any possible misuse.
Compared to the billion-dollar CD counterfeiting racket, online piracy is still relatively low, and with record companies now on the alert, it's going to get harder to illegally download music.
Twenty years ago, the industry was hot under the collar about home-taping - today it's home downloading. What really should get the big labels sweating buckets, however, is that consumers now have an alternative to buying overpriced CDs by bland, mainstream artists. Your Michael Boltons and Mariah Careys are under seige from a horde of new, underground artists who are performing on the Net.
One site, Peoplesound.com, runs a weekly Top 20 chart - Westlife, Boyzone and The Vengaboys are conspicuous by their absence. This week's Number One is Last Men Standing, ousting Stellar Ruby from the top slot.
It's not only unknowns who are putting their music on the Net. Established artists are routinely offering free downloads to fans who visit their websites. Exclusive, Web-only offers work the same way as free fan club gifts, rewarding fan loyalty, but also serving as a promotional tool for the band's offline output.
Some long-established stars have gone the whole hog, selling their album solely through the Web. Jimmy Page, former guitarist with Led Zeppelin, has recently teamed up with The Black Crowes on an Internet-only release. Jimmy Page and the Black Crowes Live at the Greek will be available through Musicmaker.com, either to download or order by post. The album contains 19 tracks, but buyers will be able to choose only the songs they want, and create their own personalised disc. It's a long way from Stairway to Heaven. So far, the online music revolution has mostly affected the way in which we buy music. For record collectors, the Web is a godsend, offering access to music catalogues worldwide, and making it easier to find that elusive 12-inch remix.
It's also - despite their protestations - a godsend to record companies, because they have a whole new market in which to sell their old stuff. Big labels are rushing to offer their back catalogues on the Web at cyber-cut prices, and companies such as EMI are letting consumers create their own custom CDs from a library of classic artists.
Online music purchasing is increasing exponentially with the growth of new technologies, and while artists and labels fight for control over copyrighted material, the real winners will be consumers, whose choices will expand along with the web.
MP3 players such as the MusicStore and SoulMate are coming up alongside the traditional Walkmans, and the PC is the new hi-fi of the 21st century.
Don't throw away your CD player yet, though. MP3 technology still hasn't caught up to CD quality, and downloading music is still a tedious and time-consuming affair. The future, however, is better sound quality, faster downloading, streaming videos, Internet on television, live widescreen webcasts and instant access to a universe of music.
It's just another medium, but the message is the same: entertain us, and give us value for money. No wonder the big record labels are rushing to plug the legal holes in the Web.
Kevin Courtney is The Irish Times rock critic: kcourtney@irish-times.ie