Ian McShane, managing director of MRBI Ltd, analyses the findings of his company's first poll for The Irish Times in this general election year
The last nationwide Irish Times/MRBI polls were conducted in May 2001, one on the 14th-15th, and the other on the 29th-30th. The first of the two covered levels of satisfaction with the Government and party leaders, while the second covered Government satisfaction only (Table A). Both polls included the standard party support questions (Tables B and C).
At the time it was noted that the Government parties had maintained solid levels of support as they entered their fourth year in power, this despite their having weathered numerous storms ranging from the fallout from the various tribunals to the public backlash against the attempted nomination of Hugh O'Flaherty to the position of vice-president of the European Investment Bank the previous autumn.
Analysis also pointed to the fact that while Fine Gael had registered an upturn in support of four points over the preceding four months, party leader Michael Noonan's personal satisfaction rating of 37 per cent only equalled that recorded for John Bruton weeks before he was ousted.
Since then, the political environment has changed considerably. Most significantly, the political parties have clearly moved to an election footing following the Christmas break, with the first salvos of the campaign already being discharged.
Fieldwork for today's poll was conducted this week, on Monday, January 21st, and Tuesday, January 22nd. More recent developments which may have influenced the public's views and opinions within a political context include, in no particular order, the media furore over Mary Harney's use of a State jet to travel to the opening of an acquaintance's off-licence in Co Leitrim; Fine Gael's proposals to compensate through tax breaks those who suffered losses on their Eircom shareholding; the public pronouncements of Fianna Fáil's Micheál Martin and Mary O'Rourke in relation to an increase in hospital beds and the roll-out of the Dublin Metro system; and the decision of Tom Parlon and Michael McDowell to contest Laois-Offaly and Dublin South East respectively for the PDs.
The results of the survey make interesting reading. While satisfaction with the Government has dropped 10 points since last May, support for Fianna Fáil registers a downturn of just one point over the same period, with the Progressive Democrats solid at 3 per cent.
Bertie Ahern's personal satisfaction rating has increased to an 18-month high of 68 per cent, while Mary Harney's, down five points since the last poll, is still on a par with her average rating as achieved over the previous six polls. Perhaps some signs of unease with the political status quo as we enter a phase of economic uncertainty, but all in all a healthy performance for the longest serving peacetime Government in the history of the State.
In line with these findings, a return of a Fianna Fáil/PD coalition was the single clearest favourite of a range of potential government options presented to the respondents during the interview (Table D). When those who were undecided at this question are excluded from the equation, it emerges that 41 per cent of all those expressing an opinion opted for a continuation of the existing partnership. This is also the desired outcome amongthe vast majority of Fianna Fáil and PD supporters who expressed a preference.
Taking an overview of the responses to this question, it is worth noting that 57 per cent of all those expressing an opinion opted for some form of coalition involving Fianna Fáil; 47 per cent for a government which included the Labour Party; and 31 per cent for an administration with Fine Gael.
Labour Party strategists will note that the number of core party supporters favouring a coalition involving Labour and Fine Gael outweighs that opting for a Fianna Fáil-Labour partnership by a margin of two to one. Perhaps not surprisingly, the most attractive outcome for Fine Gael supporters is a Fine Gael-Labour coalition, followed by the rainbow option incorporating the Green Party.
The performance of the key opposition parties is somewhat more variable when compared with last year's polls. As with all Irish Times/MRBI polls conducted over the last two years, party support levels have been statistically adjusted to counteract the effects of falling voter turnout at election time, and are illustrated in this instance in Table B.
Fine Gael will be disappointed that party support levels have dropped three points since May, and that Michael Noonan's satisfaction rating as leader of the party has dipped to 31 per cent, down six points. The party continues to register its strongest performance in rural areas and among older voters, and will need to strengthen its positioning in the Dublin region in particular between now and the election.
Labour will spend the next four months attempting to reverse the more recent slippage in its core vote. To its advantage, its current supporter profile is reasonably well spread across younger and older voters, but is under increasing pressure from the more radical Sinn Féin and Green parties.
As Table C illustrates, Sinn Féin support has been on an upward trajectory since January 2000 and now registers a national poll rating of 8 per cent. Given that this support is likely to be concentrated in specific areas around the State, if this result was replicated on election day, the party would be almost certain to increase its Dáil representation of just one deputy. The party's Achilles heel may yet prove to be the degree to which its support relies on the younger voter, that section of the electorate least likely to actually turn out on election day.
The Green Party has registered an average poll rating of 5 per cent over the last two years; precisely what was recorded in this week's survey. The party profile is very much skewed towards the Dublin region, and young to mid-aged voters from a white-collar working background. Its Dublin-focused support base will no doubt be of some reassurance to John Gormley as he faces a renewed challenge from Michael McDowell of the PD's in the capital's South East constituency.
Given the consistent opinion poll performance of both the Green Party and Sinn Féin over the last number of years, satisfaction ratings for their respective party leaders have, for the first time, been included in the polling procedure.
Newly elected - and first ever - leader of the Green Party Trevor Sargent should be reasonably satisfied with his personal rating of 35 per cent, coupled as it is with a sizeable 52 per cent of the electorate who as yet have formed no opinion of him as leader. Satisfaction with Gerry Adams as leader of Sinn Féin is, at 56 per cent, second only to Bertie Ahern, and peaks among supporters of his own party and those of Fianna Fáil.
In political terms, there is a long way to go between now and the general election in May, with party fortunes as measured via public opinion polls likely to fluctuate over the period.
The very earliest phase of the election campaign has, however, resulted in a consolidation of Government party support. On the other hand, we have seen a drop for Fine Gael and marginal slippage for Labour, coupled with a rise in support for Sinn Féin, the Green Party and Independents. As the campaign develops, it will be interesting to see whether the electorate intends to use the election as an opportunity to elect an alternative government, or an alternative opposition.
The survey in the Republic of Ireland was conducted exclusively on behalf of The Irish Times by MRBI Ltd among a national quota sample of 1,000 representatives of the 2.76 million electors aged 18 and upwards, covering 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the Republic of Ireland. Personal in-home interviewing took place on January 21st and 22nd, 2002, and the accuracy level is estimated to be approximately plus or minus 3 per cent. In all respects, the survey was conducted within the guidelines laid down by the Marketing Society of Ireland and by Esomar (European Society).
Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgment is given to The Irish Times and MRBI Ltd.