With Meath and Dublin not producing, Leinster's All-Ireland famine looks likely to get worse, writes Seán Moran
You never see it coming. Could Offaly have ever envisaged as Croke Park still vibrated after the county's sensational defeat of Kerry in the 1982 final that they would add just one Leinster title in the next quarter of a century?
There is a poignancy about the zenith of anyone's affairs, that unbeknownst point from which fortune begins to slip away - as newspaper captions used like to put it: "In happier times . . ."
There can be many an argument over where exactly revivals or success stories begin but the high point generally remains visible as teams slip farther away from it.
It's eight years since Meath lifted Leinster's most recent Sam Maguire - in a different millennium - and six years since the same county were the eastern province's last senior finalists in late September. Apart from the epic deprivation of 1928-1942, there has never been a longer run in Leinster without an All-Ireland.
Nor is it simply a question of a bad run at senior level. Only in 2003, when Dublin won the under-21 and Laois the minor, has an underage All-Ireland made its way east.
On top of that it's now nine years since Offaly won the NFL, which in the interim has become an important indicator of championship prospects. Kerry, Armagh, Tyrone and Mayo have between them won the last six titles and have also been the only counties to grace an All-Ireland final in the past five years.
In the sifting landscape of the game Leinster has found it more difficult to establish its presence. The championship structures have been more democratic since the introduction of the qualifier system in 2001. This inevitably diminished the intimidating potential of Leinster champions in the old system, in which All-Ireland engagement took place only on the level of provincial champions, and has meant the greater presence of quality teams from other provinces.
For example, in the six years of the qualifiers the Leinster champions have on all but two occasions been eliminated by qualifiers from other provinces. Dublin in 2002 and last year are the only examples of what would have been considered conventional exits, against other provincial champions, Armagh and Mayo, in an All-Ireland semi-final.
Then there have been two significant breakthroughs in the province this decade, with Laois and Westmeath winning Leinster titles.
More often than not, such achievements are not capped by All-Ireland success, and in each of the above examples neither county won their next match.
The overall picture is no less discouraging. In all rounds of qualifiers and other All-Ireland matches, Leinster counties show a negative balance in their matches against sides from other provinces - and have done so in four of the last six championships.
It's fair to point out that because there are so many counties in the province, there are a greater number of weaker teams acting as fodder for the representatives of other provinces, but at the top end of the market the statistics are at their most depressing.
For the past five championships the three top counties have been Armagh, Kerry and Tyrone, and since 2002 only Laois, last year, of all the Leinster counties have eliminated any of the top three. And despite Armagh, Kerry and Tyrone having played Leinster opposition 12 times in those six years, that one victory is all the province has to show.
Another major factor is the decline of Dublin and Meath. Although Dublin are currently on a three-in-a-row in the province, the county have never achieved - and certainly not in modern times - back-to-back Leinster titles and still been so far removed from winning All-Irelands.
Meath haven't won a Leinster since 2001 and haven't even qualified for the final since.
Leinster secretary Michael Delaney made the point last year that Dublin, or any top team in a province, need a Meath or some other well-matched competitor because the two rivals will always drive each other on and maintain a necessary edge.
Strangely, only in the interprovincial competition itself have Leinster been successful in recent years. Val Andrews has managed the side that won the last two Railway Cups. He feels there has developed too much of an emphasis on winning the provincial title and a consequent diminution of ambition,
"I was in Kerry for six years and never heard them talk about a Munster title - beating Cork maybe but for them All-Irelands were the only measure. The thrust of success has to be national titles."
Dublin will have their work cut out this year in Leinster. The recently concluded National League hasn't brought any great new developments. Vital matches against the very counties that have put them out of the last three championships have ended up with them squandering the initiative and losing narrowly. In other words a very familiar and equally unwelcome pattern has been maintained.
It's not clear how much if any fresh blood is to be transfused into the team. Ross McConnell played the last few NFL fixtures at full back but is still a work in progress. Ger Brennan, their most consistent rookie, has been taken off toward the end of the league campaign, perhaps a sign of waning confidence and, if not, an unusual way to tee him up for the summer.
Two of the most conspicuous forward talents called into the team were Diarmuid Connolly and Bernard Brogan. The latter has not nailed down a starting place, whereas the former has fluctuated wildly, and in the absence of the injured Alan Brogan, Jason Sherlock has looked the best forward 12 years since he lit the fuse for the county's last All-Ireland.
Despite the merciless roasting they got last year from Dublin, Laois remain the closest challengers for the title. Under Liam Kearns's management they have been tougher to cope with despite being without key players at various stages of the league. On the less taxing side of the draw, the 2003 champions will be expected to reach the final and may enter it as favourites.
Kildare were the best league team from the province and performed creditably against Donegal in the semi-final. John Crofton's team are a tight unit that eked out the most consistent results in their division and had to do so without Dermot Earley, their most experienced player.
The one firework in the box, John Doyle, impacted throughout the fixtures despite being a marked man every day he went out. It's a tribute to the rest of the team that they can create the space and platforms to make Doyle so effective in the circumstances.
Their opening tie, against Meath, will be the match of the round. The return of the former player Colm Coyle as manager is expected to revive the county and there were some signs of this in the NFL - especially the play-off stages in Division Two - but more is needed to make an impact in the weeks ahead.
But the winners of the Kildare-Meath match will have the advantage of a big day out before facing Dublin, whose first outing the quarter-final will be. As things stand the champions look vulnerable.
The bitterest irony amongst the province's counties is the fate of last year's finalists Offaly. Unlucky to be relegated from Division One last year, they played well to reach the final against Dublin and didn't do too badly there.
New manager Pat Roe had achieved good results when working with Carlow (O'Byrne Cup winners) and Wexford (NFL finalists) but the slide to Division Four in the rearranged league means the team won't be able to compete in the qualifiers unless they repeat last year's achievement and reach the final, a path that requires them to survive the Dublin/Kildare/Meath half of the draw.
Last summer, Westmeath were unexpectedly All-Ireland quarter-finalists for the third time in six years. This season they blazed a trail in the NFL for a while and looked like they could qualify for the new Division One. Among their prize scalps were Laois, to whom they'll have to repeat the dose if they are to reach the final.
Luke Dempsey's Longford were arguably the story of the 2006 championship, from nearly beating Dublin on the June bank holiday to defeating Derry and giving Kerry something to think about. Despite some admired forwards, Longford will find it a hard act to follow.
Wicklow started the year as the buzz county in Leinster, with Mick O'Dwyer making a splash in the O'Byrne Cup, but during a league that featured the team in the news as much for off-field controversy in the long drawn-out recruitment of Thomas Walsh from Carlow as for on-field achievement.
Demotion to Division Four of next year's league wasn't in the pre-publicity, and the resulting inability to make an impact in the qualifiers robs Micko of the second chance should Eamonn McEneaney's well-drilled Louth side, unlucky to slip all the way to Division Three, prove, as looks likely, an insurmountable obstacle in the first round.
Spare a thought for O'Dwyer's first competitive opponents in the O'Byrne Cup last January.
Carlow have seen their not-exactly-vast horizons shrink. Three years ago on a flying visit, Luke Dempsey orchestrated a championship win over Longford before opting to take over the latter. They have spent much of the preparation time for this summer looking for a new manager and watching good players walk away.
John Kearns, a link with the late Bobby Miller's successful Éire Óg and Carlow teams of the 1990s, will have his work cut out.
As we were all brought up to believe, there's always someone worse off than you are.