The European Central Bank is expected to toughen its anti-inflation rhetoric on Thursday to signal at least one more interest rate increase later this year.
Above-trend inflation, the best economic growth in six years, a steadily recovering labour market and plenty of cheap credit are all reasons for the benchmark rate, now at 3 per cent, to head higher in the world's second largest economic region.
But investors and market analysts doubt the ECB Governing Council, better known for caution and well-flagged rate changes, will tighten credit until October.
Action this Thursday following a rate hike earlier this month would smack of urgency, since the August 3rd increase was itself an acceleration from the quarterly pace of rate increases the ECB had delivered since early December.
Instead, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet at his news conference after the Governing Council meeting will probably lay the ground work for an October 5th move.
Analysts look for him to ratchet up the language to "vigilance" against inflationary risk from its current position of watching prices "very closely".
Market economists said that by pursuing this gradualist approach to rate hikes after a long period of very low rates, the ECB had avoided shocks to business sentiment or to financial markets - a pattern it will want to continue.
"I really doubt they are ready to go for back-to-back rate hikes, and I would not be convinced that is terribly wise," said Klaus Baader, economist at Merrill Lynch in London.
"The ECB does not want to surprise, that is clear, and none of the governors have indicated that a move is imminent. At the same time, we are not anywhere near the end of the tightening cycle. We have quite a way to go," he said.