Fianna Fáil and the PDs have pulled ahead of the alternative government as they continue to convince voters they are the ones to be trusted with the economy, writes Mark Brennock.
Opinion poll results published in newspapers rarely come as a shock to the larger political parties. For they do their own private polling on a regular basis to find out what the voters are thinking.
So the results published this week of the Eurobarometer poll taken throughout the 25 EU member states revealed precisely why the Government and the Opposition concentrate on the issues they do.
The poll, conducted on behalf of the EU Commission, showed that Irish people are the most optimistic in the EU about how the economy, the employment situation and their own financial circumstances will evolve over the next 12 months.
Polling on behalf of the Government parties has undoubtedly shown them the same thing. So therefore Government Ministers repeat ad nauseam that our economic prosperity is not due to several decades of government action combined with international circumstances.
Rather, they tell us, it is down to something unique about the policies they have followed since 1997, and that in contrast the Opposition's policies are guaranteed to bring about economic destruction and misery.
On the negative side for the Government, this Eurobarometer poll showed that Irish people are more concerned than any others about the state of the healthcare system, and are also worried about rising prices and crime.
So the Opposition parties, armed with their own voter research, concentrate relentlessly on failures in the health services, on crime levels, on "rip-off" prices, and most importantly on the notion that the Government is entirely responsible for all of these.
The results today of the Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll show that both Government and Opposition have had some success on the issues they have chosen for themselves.
Back in September, voters were fairly evenly divided as to whether they believed Fianna Fáil and the PDs on the one hand, or Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens on the other, would be better at managing the economy.
Then the current combination had a marginal two-point lead on this: now they have a 15-point lead over the alternative on the economic competence issue.
Back then - immediately after the high-profile Rip Off Republic television series - 35 per cent said the alternative would be better at controlling prices, with just 23 per cent saying the current Coalition would be. But now the current Government has a 32-31 lead over the alternative coalition on this issue.
The same applies to the question of keeping taxes low. Whereas last September voters were evenly divided as to which option would best do this, now the current Coalition has a 39-25 lead on the issue.
So while Eurobarometer has told us voters are optimistic about these economic issues, this latest poll shows us that the Government has convinced them that it is the Coalition to trust to manage these issues.
The EU poll told us that Irish people were more concerned than any others in the EU about the state of the health services.
And it emerges from today's poll results that the voters trust the Opposition potential alternative government more on this issue.
Some 33 per cent believe the alternative would handle health better, 24 per cent that this government would.
The core point emerging from all of this is that, while in polls voters say the state of the health services is a terribly important issue for them, strategists in all parties acknowledge that they tend to cast their vote on the basis of who will look after their economic interests.
And on this question, the people trust Fianna Fáil and the PDs more to deliver, and are very optimistic that their economic future is secure.
The result of all this, as shown in today's results, is that Fianna Fáil and the PDs now have a clear lead over the alternative involving Fine Gael, Labour and possibly the Greens, as the preferred coalition option for after the next election.
Back in September the situation was reversed, and the alternative was the preferred option. But that was straight after the Eddie Hobbs TV series when the Government was dealing with a sustained period of criticism over wasteful spending and rising prices.
The alternative offered by the Opposition then rivalled Fianna Fáil and the PDs in terms of voter perception of economic competence. Since the Budget, Fianna Fáil and the PDs have restored their commanding lead in this area.
This presents the alternative government with two options. It can seek to turn around the public perception in relation to economic management - it can try to persuade the public that it, and not the current Coalition, is more competent on the economy.
It has been trying this through highlighting the overspending on the PPARS project, the leaking National Aquatic Centre, the leaking Port Tunnel, and so on.
But a more ambitious project would be to seek to persuade voters that they should not cast their vote based on economic hopes and fears, because the election result will not transform the State's economic fortunes one way or the other.
Rather, they could seek to put forward some vision for the future of the country that marks them out as different from what has been implemented since 1997.
This is a tall order. It will require a lot of negotiation between Fine Gael and Labour to unite them behind a single vision for the future, but they still have time to do it.