TV debates exert a strong influence over public opinion as voting begins, writes ISABEL CONWAYin The Hague
DUTCH VOTERS go to the polls today to choose a new government after a campaign which started slowly and which only livened up later as potential coalition bedfellows from the right, left and centre bickered and sniped at one another.
An abundance of last-minute spin, political mudslinging and public obsession with the performance of party leaders in a succession of TV debates marked an election which was called when the government collapsed earlier this year in a row over keeping troops in Afghanistan.
Crime and punishment, education, health and social welfare spending – key issues in Dutch elections – were sidelined this time by the main preoccupation: how to balance the budget and solve the Netherlands economic crisis. Mortgage tax relief also took centre stage.
Written off as a loser only a few years ago, the leader of the VVD right-wing Liberals, Mark Rutte, kept his party ahead as front-runners. They are expected to deliver up to 36 seats .
The PvdA Labour Party, coalition partners who pulled the plug on the previous government, were tipped to drop to 30 seats while the CDA Christian Democrats were expected to be the big losers dropping from 41 seats to as few as 22 in some late polls.
Mr Rutte (43), clean-cut, young and energetic in the mould of the new British prime minister David Cameron, announced as the campaign ended that he “can’t wait to get started”.
The fact that he had predicted an economic crisis as early as January 2008 – when the ruling parties were still saying that the Netherlands’s sound economy would not be hit too hard – that he wants aggressive spending cuts and is tough on crime and immigration sent his ratings soaring.
Mr Rutte was also winner of most of the TV debates, whereas the standing of present caretaker Christian Democrats prime minister Jan Pieter Balkenende has continued to plummet in the polls as he showed his irritation, preaching and carping at opponents.
The leader of the Labour Party, (PvdA) Jap Cohen, toured cities and towns, presenting red roses to the public and warning against the polarising effect that the VVD and its anti-immigration policy would have for the unemployed, the less-well-off and for immigrants.
He also endeared himself to women voters, having been rated the political leader Dutch women would most like to date.
Mr Cohen, however, as a modest debater who does not like to go on the attack, dropped in the ratings after giving an uncertain performance and being ill-at-ease on some issues during the TV debates.
A former mayor of Amsterdam and a Jew who has reached out to orthodox Muslims, he had entered the fray as a new party leader.
Heading some popularity polls, he was talked of as the Netherlands’s next prime minister, only to be overtaken by Mr Rutte.
Mr Rutte has declared that if he can shore up a Liberal Right coalition, he wants a cabinet formed by July 1st so that work on rebuilding the Netherlands’s economy can begin immediately. Coalition wheeling and dealing is traditionally slow and complicated in the Netherlands.
The left-wing coalition contenders, the Labour Party, the centre liberals D66, and Groen Links, the Green left, who have said they can work together, may end up forming the next coalition, depending on today’s outcome.
None of the parties on the left are prepared to do business with the enfant terribleof Dutch politics Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party, tipped in the polls to do less well than in earlier predictions, but nevertheless adding at least six seats to the nine it already has in parliament.
The controversial anti-immigration populist’s campaign was remarkably muted.
His opponents claim he does not want to be in government . But he would support a minority Christian Democrat and VVD centre-right minority government, he has said.
This would be a position acquired by the Danish People’s party, which has now acquired considerable influence, and one Mr Wilders clearly wants.