CONSTITUENCY PROFILE:FIVE YEARS ago the prospect of a Trimble versus Donaldson election clash would have been a highlight of the campaign.
The very public clash between the then Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble and the renegade Jeffrey Donaldson, who had just been welcomed into the arms of the DUP, would have headlined that Westminster campaign.
This time, however, it is Daphne Trimble’s name that adorns Ulster Unionist and Conservative posters with her husband now established in the House of Lords after his bruising defeat in neighbouring Upper Bann five years ago.
The Trimbles live in Lagan Valley which centres on the North’s newest city of Lisburn and five years ago the DUP publicly relished canvassing David’s locality as if to rub his nose in it.
Jeffrey Donaldson romped home with nearly 55 per cent of the vote, securing the vast bulk of his mandate despite standing in his new DUP colours and making the seat his new party’s second safest. In this overwhelmingly unionist constituency, he seems set fair to win again although it is clear that things have changed in the interim.
Daphne Trimble – one of a handful of candidates known by her first name – is campaigning heavily on the Conservative element of the platform with which her husband is closely linked.
Jeffrey – also almost universally known by his first name – is fighting a much lower-key campaign designed seemingly to ensure his considerable personal vote remains with him.
New to the mix is the presence of the Traditional Unionist Voice which is trying to do to Jeffrey what he so successfully did to David Trimble last time out.
TUV candidate Keith Harbinson’s stance on sharing power with Sinn Féin at Stormont is based on the simple claim “it cannot be politically right to do what is morally wrong”.
The MPs’ expenses scandal followed by the saga of Peter and Iris Robinson’s personal and business affairs has not played well with unionists.
Nor did the protracted February negotiations on the devolution of policing and justice.
This constituency was once dominated by former Ulster Unionist leader Jim Molyneaux, a close associate of Jeffrey, and his colossal majorities were the stuff of legend in the House of Commons. This time around the exact results are harder to call.
Alliance is running local Assembly member Trevor Lunn. He will be more than ready to accept the vote of middle-of-the-road unionists and there is a strong sense here, as in other constituencies around Belfast, that Alliance has a fair wind.
The constituency boundaries have been revised due to the need for the four Belfast constituencies to expand into the hinterlands. As a result, Lagan Valley has lost the nationalist-inclined areas around Glenavy to South Antrim and bits of Dunmurry to West Belfast.
Sinn Féin’s Paul Butler already holds a secure Assembly seat, gained from the SDLP in 2007. Brian Heading, the SDLP candidate this time, will try to ensure that the rot stops while both parties will try to cope with the loss of the constituency’s most nationalist concentrated wards.