As the drop-out statistics suggest, making the transition from school to college is fraught with danger, writes Sean Flynn, Education Editor

Like most students at this time of year, your focus rarely shifts from the June exams.

Yes, the CAO process is about to kick-in but you have more urgent matters on your mind - like the upcoming oral exams or the mocks.

In these January days, it is difficult to study - let alone wonder about the rest of your life. You could be forgiven for thinking along these lines.

But a word of caution. Taking time to reflect on your options now will avoid heartache next year.

In truth, most of us have a fair idea of what kind of points score you will achieve in the exams. Have a look at the CAO points figures for last year published in this supplement today.

Identify the courses you're interested in and ask yourself the following questions: Is this what I want to study for three/four years in college? What are the alternatives if I fail to reach the level of points? Have I enough information on what I will study and the college where I will study it from next October?

The answer to the latter is almost certainly "no".

A strange irony of Irish education is that while, most put a good deal of effort into the exams, few make any great effort to research the course we intend to study or the college where we intend to study.

Before you deal with the CAO form, here are some facts to help concentrate the mind. According to the Higher Education Authority - the group which manages the university sector - almost one-in-five students will drop-out of their course.

Its most recent data reveals that 28 per cent of students dropped out of NUI Maynooth and over 20 per cent dropped-out at UL. Among the colleges, NUI Galway performed best with a drop out rate (13 per cent) followed by UCD (14 per cent), UCC (15 per cent), TCD (16 per cent) and DCU (21 per cent).

The situation in the institutes of technology (IOT) sector is more alarming. Recent reports published in 2000 indicate that 42 per cent of students did not complete their courses. The drop-out rate for male students was 49 per cent; about 37 per cent of female students failed to complete their course.

What can we learn from these statistics? They show that the education system, despite the efforts of guidance counsellors, is not giving career and college advice the priority it merits. The obsession with the Leaving Cert means that career guidance becomes a secondary issue.

Here are some quick tips that may help you make the transition from Leaving Cert to college:

• Do some ground work on your selected course - this will occupy you for the next three or more years once you enter college in October. Take the trouble to meet students on this course. Ask them to assess it for you.

• Do some ground work on the college - one recent survey on the IT sector found that the college prospectus was the only source of information routinely used by students. You should inform yourself about your chosen college. It will help to shape your future. Look at the college website. Talk to current students. Lift the phone or e-mail academics in your area of interest.

• Remember, studying for college exams is not like the Leaving Cert. Many students drop out of college because they fear they will not do well in exams. So how come so many students with good Leaving Cert points scores fail to stay the course at third-level?

The answer is because college is a different experience from the Leaving. In the Leaving you will be asked to regurgitate chunks of material. At third-level you will be required to retain a huge volume of knowledge.

But in many courses you are expected to develop a more critical perspective. You will also to a large extent be on your own. Of course, your parents will help you. But as an adult it will be up to you to pick up the challenge.

• Be careful about computer courses if you are poor at maths. As Brian Mooney points out in this supplement, there are great opportunities in the IT sector, despite a downturn. The majority of students can look forward to good courses and careers in IT. But drop-out rates from computer courses are high. In TCD, one-third of students failed to complete a computer studies course, reported a recent survey.

On average about one-quarter of all students in computer studies fail to complete the course. Be cautious about signing up for computer courses if you have a poor grasp of maths. Maths is a very important component of many computer courses at third-level.

One piece of good news. Even if you make the wrong choice before the CAO deadline of February 1st, you can still change your mind and change that selection. A change of mind facility operates until July 1st next. So take the time and the trouble to make the right choice.