During the period of economic prosperity since 1994, higher education has shared in the fortunes of the general economy. In that time, the Republic of Ireland crossed the threshold from "mass" to "universal" higher education - as defined a generation ago by American sociologist Martin Trow where over 40 per cent of the school-leaving population proceeds to higher education.

Higher education in Ireland has been on a growth path since the 1960s in terms of student participation and State expenditure. With the prospect of a short or medium-term downturn, how is the sector likely to fare?

Apart from the continued growth in participation rates, there have been three major developments over the past decade. These were the virtual total abolition of tuition fees for full-time students, the commitment to massive national investment in research and development - much of it dependent on higher education - and the acknowledgement that Ireland lagged behind other countries in the manner its higher education system catered for disadvantaged groups, notably mature students.

It is unlikely that anything other than a protracted slump will raise the possibility of re-introducing tuition fees. Their abolition for full time students was a major initiative, comparable to the free education scheme introduced at second level in the 1960s, although it did not capture the public imagination in the fashion of the O'Malley scheme.

While there are strong arguments, not least on grounds of equity, for revisiting the topic in a recession, it would almost certainly be reckoned a form of political suicide for any government to contemplate reversing this initiative. Free tuition has to be regarded as safe in all circumstances short of an economic melt-down.

The commitment to major expenditure on research and development is relatively recent and might, accordingly, seem more vulnerable. Apart from the Programme for Research in Third-Level Institutions and a number of other initiatives, there is a commitment of £1.9 billion in the National Development Plan. There are already indications that the Government is preparing to delay elements of the plan. Some research projects may be slower to come on line because of the economic downturn.

The decision makers in the area of industrial policy have been convinced that major R&D investment is the way route to take to maintain the level of wealth creation of the past decade, and to reposition Irish industry higher up the value chain. This is a key long-term strategy which will take at least a decade to prove its success or failure. The commitment to this research has gone well beyond the education sector and it is difficult to see it coming under serious attack in the short term.

It took the skill shortages of the late 1990s to convince the State that it had fallen behind in its provision for mature students and lifelong learning. The Green and the White papers on adult education recognised this, as did various other initiatives such as the Action Group on Access to Third Level Education. Nonetheless, in a downturn this area is vulnerable. The commitment is relatively recent, although the problems are long-standing, well-researched and well-known.

The difficulty has to do with political muscle. Mature students, for example, are a diverse and unorganised group of people. They are a much less identifiable and politically sensitive group than school leavers or their parents, and it is thus easier to neglect them. Mature students and other disadvantaged students are the most likely short-term casualties of a downturn.

There are two further problems facing higher education, which are somewhat independent of any downturn.

For over 40 years the numbers entering higher education have grown year on year. The sharp decline in the birth rate from 1980 onwards is now beginning to bite and a gradual decline in enrolments through the period to 2015 appear to be looming. What has emerged over the past three years is that the drop in enrolments is likely to hit the institute of technology (IT) sector more severely than the universities. Within the IT sector, the pain has not been shared evenly across the system, and this year's CAO take-up figures suggest that, for the most part, the problem is severest in the smaller institutes outside the larger urban areas. Tackling this issue will provide a real challenge of leadership and creativity for these colleges.

The other problem relates to growth in science and technology at third level. One of the main threats is the well-documented decline in interest in chemistry and physics among second-level students, a problem exacerbated by the difficulty of attracting science and mathematics graduates into second-level teaching. Lateral thinking will be required to address these problems.

It is possible to restructure when there is a shortage of money. A downturn could be a time to refocus and plan for future growth. It is too early at this stage to say whether it will be used in that fashion by the key decision-makers in higher education.

Tony White is the author of Investing in People: Higher Education in Ireland from 1960 to 2000, published by the Institute of Public Administration.