While completion rates in the State's seven universities make an interesting basis for discussion, they are certainly not the whole story.

The recent report by the Higher Education Authority (HEA) acknowledged that "the completion figure does not include those students who changed courses and completed their course of subsequent choice". A more realistic notion, therefore, is that of "drop-out rate", which is the percentage of those entering university who fail to get a degree.

For example, a non-completion rate of 28 per cent is recorded for the 1992 entry in computing studies at NUI Galway, whereas the "drop-out" rate was 8 per cent. In fact, the drop-out rate for the entry of 1991 was minus 4 per cent - students are allowed to transfer out of and into this programme, particularly after first year. Universities can be fairly flexible in this regard.

Is this another case of "lies, damned lies and statistics"? The use, or perhaps abuse, of statistics, mathematics and their interpretations is becoming increasingly prevalent. We hear much on literacy and illiteracy, but very little about the state of numeracy in our society.

Numeracy is not just knowing your tables and arithmetic, it also involves interpreting statistics correctly (what does "in a survey 45 per cent support Fianna Fail with an `error' of plus or minus 5 per cent" mean?).

In addition, numeracy now requires an appreciation of how a computer works (why is is called a "number cruncher" when it does far more - or does it?). People need to understand issues such as how secure the Internet is for their financial transactions? In fact, we need to be far more numerate to survive in the modern world than ever before.

Speaking of statistics, an interesting one is that there is a much greater correlation between mathematics qualifications upon entry and success at university than between Leaving Cert points upon entry and success, particularly in the sciences (including computer science) and engineering.

There are many excellent and inspiring teachers of mathematics in our schools, but they are a dying race. At our university in 1986, for example, 68 people with mathematics as a degree subject went on for the Higher Diploma in Education. Last year, only six graduates did likewise.

During this period, the actual numbers taking mathematics as a degree subject increased substantially, but these graduates are drawn towards the excellent employment opportunities elsewhere, particularly in the computing and finance areas. Some years ago, figures were produced showing that less than 25 per cent of mathematics in secondary schools is taught by those with mathematics as a degree subject - and it is extremely likely that this percentage has diminished substantially since then.

In the 1970s, when the number of students taking honours mathematics at Leaving Certificate was about 6,500, a Government-sponsored report recommended that "in order to meet the technological needs of the 1980s, this number must be at least doubled". The number of students taking honours mathematics at Leaving Certificate has not yet reached 11,000 and we are now into a new age where our technological needs are far in excess of what was required in the 1980s. How should we interpret these statistics on school and university mathematics? What if anything should we do about it? Why do we continue to ignore them?

The National Science Council in the US recently decided that by 2005 the amount of financial support given to the mathematical sciences would "quadruple" (or more). They are already coming from a far more developed base than we have. Some 30 to 40 per cent of this funding will go into mathematical education and the rest into mathematical research.

Many of the existing and pending problems with mathematics have been brought to the attention of the various authorities over the years, but to no avail. It seems that the political climate within education will not allow priority to be given to any one subject - even if that subject is vital to economic and social development.

In desperation, in 1998 I wrote to the then Minister for Education - I got a polite reply which avoided the issues.

If we think we have problems now, they are as nothing compared to those we will have in 10 to 15 years' time.

Ted Hurley lectures in mathematics at NUI Galway