The return of college fees is like the property tax - many people acceptthat there is an argument for it, but few want to pay up, writes Seán Flynn, Education Editor."Before the abolition of third-level fees, the children of low tomiddle-income PAYE workers fared very badly compared to all other socialgroups" - Senator Joanna Tuffy
The Minister for Education, Noel Dempsey, likes to stress that he is not in politics to court popularity or to take soft options. Politics, he says, is about the hard challenges; about having the resolve to get things done.
On the basis of today's poll findings, he is going to have to muster some of this resolve if the proposed re-introduction of third-level fees "for those who can afford them" is to take flight.
In truth, no one will be greatly surprised by the level of opposition. A majority of the public will always register opposition to any plans which will hit them in their pockets. On this occasion, 61 per cent voice opposition to the plan.
It is clear on the basis of the poll findings that any plan to re-introduce fees touches a raw nerve, especially among middle-class voters in Dublin. Among the ABC1's - the social group with the largest level of disposable income - some 64 per cent are opposed to the re-introduction of fees, even though this is the group who could most afford to pay them. The return of fees is like the property tax; many people accept there is a case for it - but few want to pay up.
There is also something of a rural/urban divide. Whereas 64 per cent of urban voters oppose the plan, this falls to 57 per cent in rural areas. This may be because the current grants system tends to be skewed towards farmers and against the average PAYE sector. The result may reflect the greater confidence among rural communities that their children will secure grants if the fees return. Conversely, the PAYE sector in Dublin and other urban areas are sending clear signals that they will not countenance the return of fees - as they will be the ones who will be forced to take the financial pain.
For all that, there are some crumbs of comfort for the Minister. The fact that almost one-third of voters actually favour the re-introduction of fees will encourage him. A good number of people have already been convinced by his argument that access to our third-level institutions must be widened for reasons for reasons of fundamental social justice.
A significant majority of people believe - notwithstanding the personal cost to themselves - that fees should return for those who can afford them. This finding may have been influenced by the recent figures which showed how fee-paying colleges were the main feeder schools for UCD and Trinity.
Of course, it is not just the public who need convincing. The Minister must also convince his Cabinet colleagues if he is to press ahead with the return of fees.
Already, both the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern and the Tanaiste, Mary Harney have distanced themselves from any wholesale return of fees - although this may have been pre-Nice referendum jitters. There have also been mutterings from backbenchers concerned about possible collateral damage in their constituencies.
On the face of it, this level of political opposition should be enough to kill of any plan to re-introduce fees for those who can afford them. Indeed, there are some in political and education circles who maintain that the plan is already a dead letter.
It may be much too early to draw this conclusion. For one thing, the key issue raised by Minister Dempsey - the gross inequality of our education system - will not go away. Can it be right that less than 10 per cent of students in working-class areas go to college while the better-off dominate university? Can it be right that students from households headed by skilled or semi-skilled workers make up just a small percentage of university students?
It may be that the Dempsey plan will falter. But, as he has said himself, how can we continue to shed crocodile tears about this problem and then do nothing about it?
Dempsey has one other factor on his side - the alarming state of the public finances.
The Minister has made it clear that he is not interested in achieving savings. He wants to divert any savings made from the return of college fees to the disadvantaged. The plan is that the €175 million now spent annually on fees would be spent on helping to widen college access.
The Minister may not be interested in saving money, but his colleagues in the Department of Finance may take a different view. The Department is casting around for any possible way to achieve savings. Asking the better off to pay up for college fees must be a very tempting option.
