Dail deputies returned to their constituencies for the Christmas recess yesterday in a much more relaxed atmosphere than that which pertained before the summer recess. Then, there was talk of a Government collapse and an autumn general election. Now, after three and half years in power, the FF/PD Coalition is considerably steadier and the Taoiseach is proclaiming to all who will listen that his Government will remain until 2002.
Governments, however, must say they will stay the course or an unstoppable election momentum builds up. The past session has been good for the coalition: the polls have improved, the Opposition has failed to make any great hits, the economy is booming and the last couple of weeks have been very favourable - the Budget went down well, the Nice summit, while not an unqualified success for us, got much attention and attracted uncritical acclaim for both Bertie Ahern and Brian Cowen, and the Bill Clinton visit capped it all.
Only Liam Lawlor and Ned O'Keeffe are spoiling the party.
Those who know the Taoiseach, and a decision on a general election rests there unless it is forced by circumstances, say June is the month he favours - but not necessarily this coming June. He likes long days, as he is a keen canvasser, and believes FF always does best at that time of year. The Opposition is hopeful he will go to the country this spring and believes election fever is about to hit us. No government has gone the full five years since Dev during the Emergency.
Quidnunc believes neither Ahern, nor the other big player in this scenario, Mary Harney, are near reaching any decisions yet. Both want to carry on as long as possible, at least for another budget, but know that going to the wire, June 2002, carries the danger of having to face the country in unfavourable circumstances. However, events could force their hands and their agendas are different.