QUIDNUNC: Neither the date nor the day of the week on which the general election will be held has yet been decided. No doubt the Taoiseach Bertie Ahern has some preferences in mind, but final discussions with the Tánaiste Mary Harney and other ministers on the best day to go to the country will not take place until after Easter.
That the election will be in May is practically certain, but initial expectations that polling day would be during the first or second week are fading and the view that it will be in the third week of the month is gaining ground.
There are several reasons for this. It is expected, although not written in stone, that the Dáil should return after the Easter recess on April 17th and sit for two weeks to pass remaining legislation; the Taoiseach wants to put distance between the election and the abortion defeat and the week of a bank holiday - May 6th - is not good for campaigning, as the momentum fades over the weekend and takes time to build up again.
So the pointers are towards the week starting May 13th. But what day? Thursday is traditional, hence the widespread original expectation of May 9th, but the abortion referendum was on a Wednesday and the last Tipp South by-election was on a Saturday. Current wisdom dictates that if you want to catch the young at home from college and a higher turn-out suits, you choose a Saturday.
Many believe Wednesday was picked for the abortion referendum to keep the young, and more liberal vote, down. Then there's a rising FF fear of the Shinners. It is accepted that some Northern nationalists have registered, quite legitimately, in the Republic and would be more likely to vote on a Saturday. A Friday poll, which half meets student demands, is gaining currency and the date mentioned is May 17th.
The President, Mrs McAleese will be in Ireland until she goes on a State visit to Greece at the beginning of July, so she will be available to receive the Taoiseach at any stage, should he decide to travel to the Áras to seek a dissolution of the Dáil. The campaign is already well underway, but the date is his call.
Ministerial waves in China
The Minister for Defence rocked the boat, albeit inadvertently, in Hong Kong last Monday, during the celebrations of St Patrick's Day on the LE Niamh. Michael Smith was the special guest at a reception for 200 local and Irish business interests hosted by Enterprise Ireland. The vessel is on a major overseas Irish trade mission.
The Minister made serious waves when he referred to neighbouring China as the "Republic of China". The guests, including local politicians, cringed as the gaffe was repeated at least three times. The "Republic of China" just happens to be the name of the so-called "renegade" island of Taiwan. China is known as the "People's Republic of China".
What's in a word? Potentially a huge political standoff, with China insisting on Taiwan coming back into the fold in much the same way as Hong Kong has.
The Minister called into Eritrea en route to Hong Kong to visit 220 Irish peacekeeping troops who have been based there since December.
Unfortunately, several members of the Minister's travelling party were hit by a bad dose of food poisoning, resulting in one official requiring hospitalisation. While Smith may not have been word-perfect on board the LE Niamh, he was one of the few who emerged from the food scare ship-shape.
Lessons hard-learned
Spare a thought next weekend for Michael Woods. The Minister for Education embarks on the traditional tour of the teachers unions' conferences.
No minister has it easy and, depending on the state of agitation within the various unions and relations with the department, the treatment meted out to the distinguished visitor can be less than courteous. Booing and walks-outs are par for the course in at least one location each year, but other experiences include the silent treatment, boycotts and, as former minister Gemma Hussey wrote, groping.
Woods is going to the INTO in Limerick, the TUI in Cork and the ASTI in Bundoran where, while there probably won't be fisticuffs, he can expect a rough ride. But then the ASTI itself could be torn apart as the split between hardliners and moderates continues. Two motions - to rejoin the ICTU and to open talks with Woods on supervision - should ensure some lively moments. ASTI has sent a questionnaire to all political parties seeking their views on such issues as pay, policy and supervision. They are awaiting the pre-election responses.
Joe of all trades
'People have had to listen to enough bullshit from me, not to have to listen to more bullshit about me," Senator Joe O'Toole told Quidnunc, when she asked if he expected much in the line of tributes at the INTO conference in Limerick in 10 days' time, when he steps down after 12 years as general secretary.
O'Toole said he had made it clear to all that he didn't want any presentations, ceremonies or valedictory speeches. "I have got extraordinary support over the years
and I do not want anything more now. They can always write me a letter and I would
be happy; if they want to support me further. I am seeking their vote for the Seanad."
O'Toole, a Kerryman, was a national school teacher at Rolestown, Co Dublin, until 1986 when he was first elected to the Seanad for the NUI. He has held his seat since and will run again this summer.
Although the quota needed (about 9,000 votes) is, he says, higher than most Dáil candidates require, he admits to no worries about the challenge for the teacher seat from the ASTI's Bernadine O'Sullivan. All he'll say is: "there is always some high profile ASTI candidate running against me".
He will miss the INTO but believes it is time to go. It is hard to maintain creativity beyond a dozen years, he says, and teachers and the union need a rest from his type of activity. He hopes to be back in the Seanad and has another year as president of the ICTU. After that, he expects to regain some control over his own life after a quarter of a century. O'Toole is 54 and hopes to write a bit and look for opportunities in industrial relations.
The meaning of Memory Lane
Was the Taoiseach telling us something? When every utterance is analysed for indications of post-election intentions, it is as difficult as ever to interpret what Bertie Ahern actually means. Consider this: "I like Seán Lemass's remark to Harold Wilson, when he won a large majority: 'Now your trouble begins. The best government I ever had was when I had a majority of minus four'. I want to say he was dead right." So he doesn't want a large majority?
Ahern was launching Republican Days - 75 years of Fianna Fáil, a glossy coffee-table book of terrific vintage photos, posters, letters and documents from the party archives, in Dublin on Tuesday. It is edited by Máirtín Breathnach, published by Ashville Media and sells at €38.
Ahern said he liked to think that the present Government had done all it could to encourage an interest in history, through support for commemorations of events such as the 1798 Rebellion, the passing of the old Irish Parliament with the Act of Union and the battle of Kinsale. He was also proud of the recent re-interment of the 10 volunteers.
Commenting on the few articles in the book - contributors include Martin Mansergh and John Waters - the Taoiseach said "many nominal left-wing parties were to the right of reputedly conservative ones. Our advocacy of social partnership puts us in that regard well to the left of New Labour in Britain. I am glad the party is significantly more left than in the past and I am proud of that".
Tuesday was one of the frequent non-sitting days in Leinster House but those who turned up for the launch included Mary O'Rourke, Rory O'Hanlon, Brian Lenihan and Noel Ahern. The Taoiseach spoke of his envy of Lemass being able to say, in 1962, that the Dáil had the authority to ratify EU membership unlike in these far from simple, post-Nice times. He added that snap elections were no longer possible.
Really? So mid-Mayit is then?
No Presbyterians on the throne
Perhaps someone should tell David Trimble that in "vibrant, multi-ethnic, multinational, liberal" UK, Presbyterians, such as he, cannot succeed to the throne.
Nor are his Church's ministers entitled to any of the 28 Lords Spiritual seats in the House of Lords. According to the 1701 Act of Settlement "whosoever shall hereafter come to the possession of this Crown, shall join in communion with the Church of England, as by law established". A Presbyterian so favoured, or with such ambition, must become an Anglican. In the House of Lords, the number of spiritual peers is 26. They include the Archbishops of Canterbury and York, the Bishops of Durham, London, and Winchester, along with the 21 next most senior Church of England bishops.
All of which helps make the UK seem somewhat like the Republic of Ireland as Trimble painted it: "pathetic, sectarian, mono-ethnic, mono-cultural".