MIDDLE EAST: In theory the Israeli government of Prime Minister Mr Ariel Sharon will this evening lose its parliamentary majority and immediately face heavy opposition pressure for early elections. This will happen when the Prime Minister's dismissals of a group of cabinet ministers and deputy ministers from two ultra-orthodox parties take effect and the two parties leave the governing coalition.
In practice, however, Israeli political precedent suggests that 11th-hour dealing will, most likely, either see the two parties restored to the coalition, or replaced by other factions, thus preserving Mr Sharon's Knesset majority and leaving the opposition as impotent as it has been for the past year in its efforts to bring him down.
Even by the unpredictable standards of Israeli parliamentary politics, the current coalition crisis came suddenly.
A routine first-reading in parliament of a package of emergency economic reforms, designed to slash some 13 billion shekels ($2.7 billion) from the annual budget, was narrowly defeated when various legislators unexpectedly stayed away from the plenum, abstained or voted against the bill. Even more unexpectedly, Mr Sharon promptly fired the ministers and deputy ministers from the ultra-orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties for voting against the bill - with the letters of dismissal set to take effect late tonight unless rescinded.
Mr Sharon will today bring the very same economic package before the Knesset again, and it will almost certainly pass this time because members of his Likud and the moderate Labour party have been ordered to present themselves en masse for the vote.
The Prime Minister - who yesterday refused to speak with leaders of Shas, a powerful 17-man force in the 120-member Knesset - believes that more Israelis support his efforts at belt-tightening in an economy buffeted by depression than sympathise with Shas's efforts to present itself as the determined champion of working class Israelis who would be adversely affected by the reforms.
He also anticipates winning kudos with the electorate for safeguarding Israel's economic standing internationally.
Indeed, his aides say that Mr Sharon is in unusually good spirits, buoyed by sky-high Israeli popularity ratings and perceiving himself to have adopted a winning strategy not only in this political scuffle but in two other key areas.
Although he was nominally defeated last week when an internal Likud forum defied him and backed his rival and former prime minister Mr Benjamin Netanyahu in voting against Palestinian statehood, Mr Sharon feels that vote has pushed Mr Netanyahu into an unelectable, far-right corner, while he is now perceived as more of a centrist.
And, even more importantly, he feels that his long-term strategy of trying to marginalise the Palestinian Authority President Mr Yasser Arafat is starting to pay dividends.
Mr Arafat is now under heavy international pressure to thwart suicide bombings, heavy domestic pressure to reform the PA and his popularity is slipping.
An opinion poll released yesterday by the respected Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah showed a 48 per cent to 43 per cent majority favouring the establishment of a post of Palestinian Authority prime minister, divesting Mr Arafat of some of his presidential powers.
A 17-year-old Palestinian was reported killed by Israeli troops on the Egypt-Gaza border last night.