Although the referendum result has removed a potentially difficult obstacle, the road to EU enlargement remains treacherous and is strewn with political potholes, writes Denis Staunton, in Brussels.
There was a festive mood at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels yesterday as officials and journalists slurped Irish coffee in celebration of the referendum result. By approving the Nice Treaty, Ireland has not only removed a potentially difficult obstacle in the way of EU enlargement but has provided a badly needed vote of confidence in the European project.
The emphatic result has instantly restored Ireland's status as the EU's favourite child and Commission officials, who recently warned that the Republic was on the verge of isolation in Europe, rushed yesterday to praise the high standard of the referendum debate. As the EU enters the final, difficult weeks of negotiations with candidate countries, the troublemakers will no longer be found in Dublin but in other European capitals.
When EU leaders meet in Brussels on Thursday, they will formally approve the Commission's proposal that 10 new member-states should join the EU in 2004. But the road to EU enlargement remains treacherous and is strewn with political potholes.
Denmark, which holds the EU presidency, remains optimistic that the leaders will agree a common position on how to finance enlargement. The financial package includes a phased introduction of farm subsidies to candidate countries, structural funds and a compensation system to ensure that new member-states do not immediately become net contributors to the EU budget.
The most controversial element is the Commission's proposal to phase in direct payments to farmers in candidate countries, starting at 25 per cent of the level paid to farmers in current member-states. The candidates regard the offer as miserly but some EU member-states, led by Germany, believe it is too generous.
When the Danish Prime Minister, Mr Anders Fogh Rasmussen, met Germany's chancellor, Mr Gerhard Schröder, in Hanover last week, he failed to persuade Mr Schröder to drop his opposition to extending direct payments to farmers in the candidate countries. Commission officials are cautious in their expectations of this week's summit and officials in EU capitals suggest a deal is unlikely.
The collapse of the Dutch government last week has complicated matters, not least because it was preceded by a parliamentary motion, supported by all three outgoing government parties, stating that four of the candidate countries were not yet ready to join the EU.
The Dutch Prime Minister, Mr Jan-Peter Balkenende, maintains that he has a mandate to negotiate in Brussels and at December's summit in Copenhagen. But with elections expected in January, Mr Balkenende may find it difficult to compromise on admitting all 10 candidate countries and also drop his objections to the extension of direct payments to farmers in the prospective new member-states.
The Danish presidency believes that failure to agree a common position on financing enlargement will put almost unbearable pressure on December's summit in Copenhagen.
Once negotiations with the candidate countries are completed, each member-state and the prospective new members of the EU must ratify accession treaties. In the member-states, the treaties will be ratified in parliament but referendums are expected in all candidate countries.
If the accession treaties are approved, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Cyprus and Malta will join the EU in 2004.
During 2003, the Convention on the Future of Europe, chaired by Mr Valery Giscard d'Estaing, will propose a draft, constitutional treaty for the EU. An inter-governmental conference will consider the draft treaty and a summit, possibly in Dublin in the first half of 2004, will agree a final version.
The treaty is expected to redefine the relationship between member-states and the European institutions and to give national parliaments an enhanced role in making EU policy. Some member-states, notably the larger ones, want to appoint a president of the European Council, who would chair summits and represent the EU abroad.
The president of the Commission is likely to be elected by the European Parliament rather than be chosen by EU leaders, as happens at present.
The Government has taken a cautious approach to the Convention, promoting an enhanced role for national parliaments but eager to preserve the present balance between EU institutions. Some Convention officials have suggested that the new treaty could create a new organisation to replace the EU, thus obliging each member-state to choose whether to join or not.
Such a move is unlikely, not least because it could require referendums in all 25 member-states of the EU in 2004. Everyone in Brussels now agrees that Ireland's double referendum on the Nice Treaty has proved to be a valuable experience. But nobody has any desire to repeat it anywhere else, or any time soon.