EU: After lurching from crisis to crisis this year, the EU can look forward to a quieter 2006 as it seeks to redefine itself and meet the challenges of globalisation and a lacklustre economy.
There are likely to be few grand political visions or pronouncements made by the Union, which even the strongest proponents of European integration admit had an annus horribilis in 2005.
The defeat of the constitutional referendums in France and the Netherlands in May- June coupled with the collapse of the EU budget talks at the European Council in June provoked a short period of institutional paralysis and acrimonious name-calling among national leaders.
Meanwhile, the riots in France and the deaths of migrants trying to enter the EU through the Spanish enclaves of Melilla and Ceuta in Morocco highlighted problems that desperately need to be tackled within Europe.
Yet the European Commission, under the leadership of José Manuel Barroso, has made only a limited impact since taking office in November 2004. Wounded by parliament when his first choice team of commissioners
was thrown out, Barroso has only recently begun to claw back some credibility through outspoken attacks on the initial EU budget proposals made by Tony Blair, the man who engineered Barroso’s appointment as commission president against the wishes of both France and Germany.
The importance of the successful EU budget talks earlier this month cannot be overemphasised. The EU’s short-term future hung in the balance when, after two days of intensive talks, leaders continued to squabble over funding they would receive in 2007-13 and the contributions they would make to the budget.
The budget talks also heralded the entry of new German chancellor Angela Merkel to the EU stage. In an impeccable performance at her first EU summit, she acted as a go-between in talks with France and Britain and intervened to help Poland accept the finished deal. Despite claims by French president Jacques Chirac that the Franco-Germany alliance was alive and well, Dr Merkel seems likely to shift German foreign policy to centre-ground – which might help overcome some of the ideological divisions that paralysed the EU in 2005.
These tensions are likely to come to the fore as the controversial services directive faces critical tests from parliament and member states this year. EU officials predict the directive, the responsibility of Irish commissioner Charlie McCreevy, will make little headway under the Austrian presidency in the first half of 2006 but may be taken on by the Finnish presidency later.
Meanwhile, the Austrians will report back on the period of reflection on the EU constitution in June, but most diplomats predict it will fall to Germany when it takes the presidency in the first half of 2007 to find a way forward.
So far 13 countries have ratified the constitution while two, France and the Netherlands, have voted against it. Until then, the EU will continue to use the institutional arrangements laid out in the Nice treaty, which have not yet caused the institutional gridlock that some predicted with EU enlargement in May 2004.
But even Ireland, which strongly endorses enlargement, has called for a big debate in 2006. Bulgaria and Romania look set to join the union in 2007, but for a growing number, this " debate" could raise the bar for future accession.