European Diary: Atanas Urdzhanov is nervous. As business manager at the Sachi sausage factory on the outskirts of Bulgaria's second city, Plovdiv, he has played a key role in propelling the firm's latest product, a frankfurter, to the top of the Bulgarian sausage market.
He now wants to break into the EU market. "We have permission to export into the EU and we do intend in the future to export," says Urdzhanov, over the noise of the expensive German machinery in the plant, built to EU standards courtesy of a €1.5 million grant from Brussels.
Like many of his co-workers at the plant, he has been awaiting the European Commission's recommendation on Bulgaria and Romania's readiness to join the EU. A positive decision on an entry date of January 1st, 2007 would boost inward investment to the Balkan state and give Sachi an EU stamp of approval. A negative decision, although not fatal, would delay entry until 2008 and perhaps temporarily stall foreign investment.
The promise of EU entry is offering opportunities to entrepreneurial local firms such as Sachi and is boosting economic growth. But it is also offering opportunities to foreign investors, some of them from the Republic: last month billionaire Seán Quinn completed the takeover of the Sofia Hilton hotel, while property tycoon Derek Quinlan bought a shopping centre in Sofia.
The positive impact of enlargement on accession states and existing members of the EU is detailed in an EU report published this month assessing the May 2004 enlargement.
Enlargement, Two Years After concludes that the stability brought by the accession of 10 new members has boosted trade, investment, economic growth and employment in the EU-10, but also opened new opportunities for firms based in the pre-existing 15 states.
Fears that millions of jobs would migrate east have proved unfounded and old member states still enjoy a trade surplus with the EU-10. "Many doomsday scenarios preceded the eastern enlargement, none of which has materialised," said EU enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn at the report's launch. "We need to give to the reunification of Europe the credit it deserves."
Fat chance. Spurred on by the rejection of the EU constitution in France and the Netherlands last year, "enlargement fatigue" is spreading throughout old Europe. As Bulgaria's prime minister, Sergei Stanishev, acknowledges wryly, there will be few fireworks in EU capitals to celebrate Bulgaria and Romania's entry to the union.
"Let's be frank. In 2003 there was a different atmosphere with regard to enlargement. There was euphoria as two parts of Europe - western and central eastern - were reuniting . . . Then things changed quite substantially," says Stanishev, referring to the constitutional referenda and the difficulties of getting a deal on the EU budget.
A paper on the future of Europe published last week by commission president José Manuel Barroso, A Citizen's Agenda, reflects the unease over enlargement. "The union must honour existing commitments. At the same time, there is a need for an informed debate on the future enlargements and what they mean for the union as a whole," says the report, which commits the commission to prepare a report on enlargement and the "absorption capacity" of the EU. This will form the basis of discussion by EU leaders on the topic at the December European Council.
The paper's publication coincided with the first big policy speech on Europe by German chancellor Angela Merkel, who spelled out her concerns about enlargement.
"A structure which has no borders cannot act decisively," warned Dr Merkel, who added that integrating new members could not be a "one-way street".
Dr Merkel is one of a number of EU leaders who want to develop different ways of strengthening ties with countries on its borders that stop short of full membership. She believes Turkey, which began talks to join the EU last October, should be offered a privileged partnership rather than full membership.
France also has concerns over Turkey and future expansion of the EU. Following Croatia's accession, Paris has committed itself to holding referenda on all enlargements, including Turkey. A no vote would give Paris the moral authority to block the country's candidature, and under the EU treaties all members must vote unanimously to enable the admission of a new member.
The Balkan states - Albania, Serbia-Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina - have advocates such as Austria which insist that membership is the best way of stabilising these former war-torn states. But countries such as Ukraine and Moldova will have a tough job persuading the EU they deserve a place in the club.
"The EU near-neighbourhood policies might be the best that a number of states can hope for," says Fine Gael MEP Gay Mitchell.
So while enlargement is good for the EU economy, politics may put a halt to expansion. This will probably not stop Bulgaria and the Sachi sausage factory from enjoying the benefits of membership, but for others it could be a different story.