Secular liberals have seen their political dreams thwarted by a proliferation of factions, writes MICHAEL JANSEN
THE VICTORY of the Ennahda party in the Tunisian election is certain to have serious repercussions in North Africa and the Middle East, notably in Egypt, where voters are set to elect a new parliament next month.
The Tunisian result could alarm Egyptian democracy activists who have warned the country’s ruling military council, which fixed the date for the poll, that if secular and liberal parties do not have time to organise, the Muslim Brotherhood could win a plurality of seats.
However, the lack of time to establish and organise viable political parties is not the only factor harming secular liberals in post-uprising elections. In both Tunisia and Egypt, secular factions have proliferated, dividing the vote and diminishing the chances of secular lists winning a substantial bloc of seats.
In Tunisia, 80 parties fielded lists of candidates, allowing well organised al-Nahda to sweep the board. In Egypt, 28 party lists with hundreds of names and more than 1,000 individual candidates have registered. The Brotherhood expects to do well. But since it has fractured and faces competition from former members and more conservative fundamentalists, it may fail to match Ennahda’s achievement.
A solid win for Egypt’s Brotherhood and Muslim conservatives could enable them to guide the process of writing Egypt’s new constitution in much the same way al-Nahda is expected to play a key role in drafting Tunisia’s new constitution. This would suit Egypt’s military which, secular democrats argue, is collaborating with the Brotherhood and other fundamentalists in an effort to block the transition to multiparty democracy. Al-Nahda’s success could prompt the Syrian government, which insists it is battling the Brotherhood and ultra-orthodox Salafi groups, to crack down on protests even harder than it is doing. Damascus could expect the backing of Baghdad and Tehran, both ruled by Shia fundamentalists who do not want the secular Syrian regime to fall to an opposition in which the Sunni Brotherhood is heavily represented.
Jordan is likely to redouble efforts to implement promised but stalled reforms. King Abdullah has just sworn in a reformist cabinet seen as the answer to protesters – led by the Brotherhood – demanding major reforms and an end to corruption. The result of the Tunisian election could also strengthen the determination of the Moroccan and Algerian political establishments to exercise extreme caution when carrying out reforms. The rulers in both countries face popular pressure for representation in government but have firmly resisted change and boosted controls, defying protesters.
Engaged in a cold war with Shia Iran over Muslim hearts and minds, Sunni Saudi Arabia can be expected to applaud the success of al-Nahda, which, allegedly, received funding for its election campaign from conservative Gulf states.
Ennahda, an offshoot of the Saudi-allied Brotherhood, could also be seen by Riyadh as a major asset in the struggle for dominance with secular liberals who have played key roles in the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria.