Renewed doubt has been cast over Ireland’s ability to meet EU greenhouse gas targets for 2020 with emissions across the transport and agriculture sectors set to increase over coming years.
The latest report released by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) says not even full implementation of existing energy efficiency and renewable fuel policies will help the country meet its binding targets for four years' time.
Ireland must reduce emissions from sectors such as agriculture, transport, residential and waste by 20 per cent from 2005 levels as part of its obligations for the non-Emissions Trading Scheme (non-ETS), but the actual reduction will likely be between 6 and 11 per cent.
In a statement the EPA said its latest figures “cast doubts over efforts to transition to a low-carbon economy in the long term” as the State struggles to satisfy requirements, or potentially face hefty fines for non-compliance.
Despite an overachievement in annual obligations since 2013, Ireland is set to breach its targets in 2016 or 2017, with agriculture and transport comprising 47 per cent and 29 per cent of non-ETS emissions respectively.
Agriculture emissions are expected to increase by between 6 and 7 per cent for the period 2014-2020, with an increase of between 10 and 16 per cent expected in the transport sector.
The latest EPA figures concern one of two broad categories for EU greenhouse gas targets, the other being the large energy and power industry.
The report will come as no surprise to environmentalists after Minister for the Environment Alan Kelly last year admitted that Ireland would not satisfy the 2020 targets.
‘Unrealistic’
Speaking at the COP21 meetings in Paris in December Taoiseach Enda Kenny described the targets as “unrealistic” for Ireland considering the “lost decade” of recession the country had gone through.
Despite pledging to be proactive in reducing CO2 emissions up to 2050 the Fine Gael leader was accused of promoting the cause of exceptionalism for Ireland by lobbying for more "time and space" for the agriculture sector in particular.
The national herd is expected to increase substantially by 2020, which many groups say will impact negatively on Ireland’s climate obligations.
Allied to this, the EPA’s report for 2014 demonstrated that the country’s economic recovery is having a concomitant effect on increasing emissions figures from the industrial, commercial and buildings sectors.
"Ireland's economy is beginning to grow again and we must balance our focus on growth with a focus on becoming more sustainable and reducing emissions," said EPA director general Laura Burke.
“EPA projections indicate that we face considerable challenges to become a low-carbon economy. Ireland must follow a pathway to decarbonising energy, transport and heating. We must break our dependence on fossil energy infrastructures,” she added.