Wildfire events likely to increase by 50% as climate changes, UN warns

Climate change and land-use changes are projected to make wildfires more frequent and intense, with a global increase of extreme fires of 50 per cent likely by 2100, according to a UN Environment Programme report.

The elevated risk threatens the Arctic and other regions previously unaffected by wildfires, it concludes. Wildfires and climate change will become “mutually exacerbating” over coming decades.

By the end of the century, “the likelihood of catastrophic wildfire events will increase by a factor of 1.31 to 1.57”, while there is a likely 30 per cent increase by 2050.

Even under the lowest carbon emissions scenario, “we will likely see a significant increase in wildfire events”, including those that would normally occur only once in 100 years, it predicts.

Weather Q&A: Are rolling winter storms the shape of things to come?

---

Iput to invest in forestry to offset carbon emissions from office blocks

---

Rising heat-related emissions a ‘serious challenge’ to climate targets, study finds

---

Hike in carbon taxes will not impact on emissions targets – Sinn Féin

---

The report calls for a radical change in spending on wildfires by governments, shifting investments “from reaction and response to prevention and preparedness”.

It was undertaken with the environmental group Grid-Arendal and was released on Wednesday in advance of representatives of 193 states convening in Nairobi under the UN Environment Assembly next week.

“Wildfires are made worse by climate change through increased drought, high air temperatures, low relative humidity, lightning and strong winds resulting in hotter, drier and longer fire seasons,” the report concludes.

At the same time, climate change is made worse by wildfires, mostly by ravaging sensitive and carbon-rich ecosystems such as peatlands and rainforests. “This turns landscapes into tinderboxes, making it harder to halt rising temperatures.”

Closer to extinction

Wildlife and its natural habitats are rarely spared from wildfires, it notes, pushing some animal and plant species closer to extinction. It cites as a recent example the Australian 2020 bushfires, which are estimated to have wiped out billions of domesticated and wild animals.

Many locations, including large parts of India, southeast China, temperate Europe, the American Midwest and South America, may have reduced risk due to extensive agriculture, which has almost wholly inhibited wildfires (as opposed to fires lit for land management purposes). However, land-use change such as abandonment and reforestation can drive an increase in burning, as seen throughout North America and Europe – and in tropical forests, it adds.

The report underlines the vulnerability of southern Europe. "The Mediterranean climate, with wet winters and dry summers, exacerbates fire hazard by favouring substantial biomass growth followed by its desiccation. These conditions are similar to those that prevailed during extreme wildfire events elsewhere, namely California and southeastern Australia. " As a consequence, Mediterranean vegetation is among the most fire-prone in the world.

It commends Portugal for its changed approach in responding to the threat of wildfires, which had caused devastation and loss of life in recent years.

Fire-ready formula

The publication urges governments to adopt a new “fire-ready formula” with two-thirds of spending devoted to planning, prevention, preparedness and recovery, and a third left for response. Currently, direct responses to wildfires typically receive more than half of related expenditures, while planning and prevention receive less than 1 per cent, it notes.

"Current government responses to wildfires are often putting money in the wrong place. Those emergency service workers and firefighters on the frontlines who are risking their lives to fight forest wildfires need to be supported. We have to minimise risk of extreme wildfires by being better prepared: invest more in fire risk reduction, work with local communities, and strengthen global commitment to fight climate change," said UNEP executive director Inger Andersen.

Wildfires disproportionately affect the world’s poorest nations, she added, with ill effects years after the flames subside that impede progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals and deepen social inequalities.

In addition to potential loss of human life, wildfires can cause acute and chronic health issues, destroy infrastructure and degrade ecosystem services, such as water supply, nutrition, biodiversity and carbon storage, she says. Wastes left behind are often highly contaminated and require appropriate disposal.

There is also “a critical need to better understand the behaviour of wildfires”, the report finds. Restoration of ecosystems is an important avenue to mitigate the risk of wildfires before they occur “and to build back better in their aftermath”.

Wetlands restoration and reintroduction of species such as beavers, peatlands restoration, building at a distance from vegetation and preserving open space buffers are some examples of the essential investments in prevention, preparedness and recovery recommended in the report.