Erbakan heads for clash with army over securalism

THE war of attrition between the government of Mr Necmettin Erbakan and Turkey's powerful military flared up yesterday when a…

THE war of attrition between the government of Mr Necmettin Erbakan and Turkey's powerful military flared up yesterday when a senior general, Gen Kenan Deniz, briefing journalists explained that "destroying fundamentalism is of life and death importance" for the survival of the secular republic.

However, the Prime Minister, shrugged off the military threat, saying that "the army is completely loyal to democracy".

Mr Erbakan yesterday met the armed forces chief, Gen Ismail Hakki Karadayi. "As will be seen, the top ranks of the state are one they are together. Our president, our government and our army are one body," Mr Erbakan said after an hour and 40 minutes of talks.

For weeks now, the mainstream press has been predicting the imminent collapse of the coalition. Yet the government survived another tense National Security Council meeting on Saturday when the civilian and military rulers of Turkey discussed for eight hours ways of implementing the measures against political Islam dictated by the generals at the February meeting.

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Despite his distaste for these decisions which target his own electorate, Mr Erbakan, playing for time, agreed to endorse a proposal for educational reform that will prevent children as young as 11 from being sent to religious schools. Having signed the joint statement, Mr Erbakan then explained the new law would have to be submitted to parliament.

Mr Salih Kapusuz, who leads the parliamentary group of Mr Erbakan's Welfare Party, promised to oppose the change.

In the past couple of days, the police raided several Quranic schools that were operating without a license and arrested a few people wearing religious dress, thus showing the first signs that the army pressure had brought some result.

The generals are unlikely to be satisfied at that. They are clearly determined to get rid of Mr Erbakan's government but are unable to intervene directly because a coup would undoubtedly rule out further integration of Turkey in Europe. They can only hope that constant pressure will eventually convince the True Path Party (DYP), the minor partner and weaker link in the coalition, to pull out of the government.

So far, the DYP leader, Ms Tansu Ciller has refused to withdraw, arguing that she was "on the side of stability" even though two of her ministers, the Industry Minister, Mr Yalim Erez, and the Health Minister, Mr Yildirim Aktuna, resigned from the cabinet because they refused to continue working with the Welfare Party.

The opposition parties have already started holding talks, trying to form an alternative government. But, as past experience has shown, this is unlikely to prove easy given the splintered political scene that emerged from December 1995 general elections.

A shaky coalition could probably be patched up, but it would most likely be a short term alliance that would lead the country to early elections. Of all the political parties, the Welfare Party is the one that has least to fear from an electoral test.

"Today, at any moment, whoever wants it, we are ready for elections," said Mr Erbakan, challenging his secular opponents.

Opinion polls show that the support for Mr Erbakan's party has risen marginally. Most analysts believe that new elections would be unlikely to change the political landscape dramatically.