BELGIUM: Just nine days after Ireland votes for the second time on the Nice Treaty, the Convention on the Future of Europe will publish the first draft of the European Union's next treaty. The Convention's President, Mr Valery Giscard d'Estaing, believes the new treaty will determine the way the EU works for the next 50 years.
Among the changes Mr Giscard d'Estaing wants to make is to give the EU a new name - United Europe. But as the Convention continues its work, most attention will focus on how the new treaty will affect the balance between national governments and European institutions. Many of the Convention's 105 members are devout federalists who want to give more power to the Commission, particularly in the area of economic and foreign policy. They argue that, in a union of 25 or more states, efficiency demands that the Commission's hand should be strengthened. Mr Giscard d'Estaing appears to be lukewarm about the idea of extending the Commission's powers, favouring instead a structured system of voluntary, political co-operation between member-states. National governments are especially jealous of their sovereignty where foreign policy is concerned and the Convention is unlikely to propose extending the Commission's role in that area. Mr Giscard d'Estaing said this week that there was broad support among delegates for the abolition of the EU's six-month, rotating presidency, which is increasingly seen as unwieldy and inefficient. It would be replaced by a more durable Council structure, perhaps with a Council President appointed by the member-states.
The Commission views this proposal with suspicion, fearing that the Council President, who would represent the EU in foreign affairs, could undermine the authority of the Commission President. Among the figures being touted as possible candidates for the post of Council President are the Spanish Prime Minister, Mr José María Aznar and Britain's Mr Tony Blair. The Convention looks certain to call for an enhanced role for national parliaments in scrutinising the EU's work and in ensuring that Brussels does not interfere in areas where national governments have prime responsibility.
Some delegates want to create a Congress of national parliamentarians - a kind of second chamber of the European parliament. Involving national parliamentarians more closely in the EU's work is seen as an important step in bringing Brussels closer to the people. Under proposals presented to the Convention, the Commission would inform national parliaments about proposed legislation at the same time as it informs governments and the European parliament. In drafting the new treaty, Mr Giscard d'Estaing must take into account the views expressed by the Convention. But he is conscious that the treaty will only become a reality if it is accepted by the member-state governments. He hopes that, once the Convention finishes work on the treaty, it will be accepted with minimal changes in a short Intergovernmental Conference.
"If the work has been sufficiently perfected, four or five meetings of prime ministers or foreign secretaries should be able to finish things off. But not a big diplomatic debate reopening things," he said.
If the Convention is unlikely to propose giving sweeping new powers to the Commission, it is expected to call for the area of justice and home affairs to be "communitarised" - co-ordinated from Brussels. The Commission's authority could be enhanced if its President is elected by members of the European Parliament. A proposal that the Commission President should be directly elected has little support.
The treaty that emerges from the Convention should make the EU easier for citizens to understand. But before it can come into force, it must be ratified by all member-states.
In a union of 25 states, that could prove difficult and will require all Mr Giscard d'Estaing's skill and all the political will national governments can muster.