EU/Analysis: The Taoiseach believes a deal acceptable to all is achievable, writes Denis Staunton.
EU leaders at their summit meeting in Brussels this evening will almost certainly agree to seek agreement on Europe's constitutional treaty before the end of the Irish presidency in June.
Officials suggested last night, however, that the leaders may not set a date for the start of formal negotiations or for their conclusion. Declining to set a date would offer the Irish presidency some latitude in pacing negotiations and attuning them to political circumstances.
It carries the risk, however, of allowing the talks to lose momentum as EU governments focus on campaigning in the European Parliament elections. Some EU leaders, notably the French President, Mr Jacques Chirac, are reluctant to agree the treaty before the elections, making an agreement before the EU summit on June 17-18th unlikely.
Mr Chirac told the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, on Monday, that it would be fatal to reconvene formal negotiations before an agreement is almost certain.
In his report to today's summit, the Taoiseach said that "there is reason to believe that an overall agreement acceptable to all delegations" is achievable. The change of government in Spain has undoubtedly enhanced the prospects of agreement, particularly on the central issue of a new voting system in the Council of Ministers.
Irish presidency officials say there is no single proposal on the table to resolve the dispute over voting.
The latest compromise being discussed among diplomats would define a qualified majority as 55 per cent of member-states representing at least 65 per cent of the EU's population.
A blocking minority would need at least four member-states and would have to represent at least 15 per cent of the EU's population. This extra condition is designed to ensure that no proposal could be blocked by either an alliance of the three biggest states or a group of the very smallest. In his report, the Taoiseach suggests that the voting issue could be linked to an agreement on the composition of the Commission and representation in the European Parliament.
A presidency source suggested that each member-state might continue to nominate a Commissioner for the time being but that the size of the Commission could be reviewed later. Political changes in Europe have served to complicate matters, however, as new governments change national positions on other outstanding issues. The new Greek government, for example, favours a reference to God in the treaty's preamble.
Spain's new Socialist Prime Minister, Mr José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, is more relaxed than his predecessor about voting rights in the Council of Ministers but wants more seats for Spain in the European Parliament.
Poor results for incumbents in the European elections could dampen the ardour of some governments for an early agreement, leaving open the possibility of failure in June or - more likely - a postponement until December, during the Dutch presidency. The Taoiseach's closest ally in Europe, Britain's Mr Tony Blair, is under pressure from some of his government to postpone agreement on the treaty until after Britain's election in 2005.
Some British ministers fear the treaty could offer a valuable election issue to the opposition Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, both of whom favour putting it to a referendum.
Mr Ahern's innate caution is likely to oppose setting a date tonight for the completion of negotiations but he must be aware that, without a deadline, much of his valuable work so far could be undone.
Summit timetable
Today 6 p.m. Two-hour discussion of terrorism.
8.30 p.m. Leaders discuss constitutional treaty over dinner. Separate meetings of foreign ministers on Middle East and finance ministers on appointment to senior post at European Central Bank
Tomorrow 9.30 a.m. Pat Cox, president of the European Parliament, meets EU leaders.
10 a.m. Leaders discuss Lisbon Agenda, which aims to make the EU more competitive.
1 p.m. Foreign affairs, including Middle East, Iraq and Kosovo.
2 p.m. Taoiseach briefs leaders of Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey.
3 p.m. Summit ends