EU stability pact may require revision - ESRI

Two of the most controversial economic initiatives in recent years - the EU's Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and the National…

Two of the most controversial economic initiatives in recent years - the EU's Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and the National Pension Reserve Fund - may require revision in light of the economic downturn, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

In its medium-term review published today, Ireland's leading economic think tank questions the effectiveness of the Growth Pact to discipline member countries in breach of EU budgetary rules.

It also argues the pension fund places an unfair burden on the current generation to fund future liabilities.

The quarterly review predicts that the SGP will become a casualty of a recession mixed with political pressures. France, German and Italy look increasingly likely to break the pact's budget/GDP ratio this year.

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The ESRI contends that "without the presence of credible penalties or sound intellectual reasons for compliance, the SGP has lost its teeth".

The most damaging effect of the debate on the SGP is that the real economic issues facing the EU - such as structural reform of the labour market - have been sidelined. This bickering may also damage the long-term credibility of the EU Commission as the driver of policy.

In this political climate, reform is inevitable and should be possible within the existing treaties. Reform may even form the basis of Ireland presidency of the EU next year owing to this country's sound fiscal record compared to the current gaffe-prone Italian presidency.

The ESRI also question's the timing but not the rationale of the National Pension Reserve Fund (NPRF). The fund was set up to save 1 per cent of GNP annually to pay for future pension liabilities after 2030.

However, the payments into the fund raise the question of what economists call "intergenerational equity". This mouthful is the idea that today's generation are paying for their parents' pension through tax, but also their own pensions through the NPRF - and the huge infrastructural programme under way - estimated at 3 per cent of GNP - as well as the disruption cost of the projects.

As this level of spending is paid out of current tax receipts, this represents a saving for future generations as no there are no offsetting liabilities.

When the NDP is completed by around 2015 and if these savings were then redirected into a pension fund, the value of that fund would be greater than the current fund based on the annual contribution of 1 per cent, according to the ESRI.

While welcoming the investment in infrastructure the ESRI believes such large investments should be funded by a combination of borrowing and tax revenue.

As the EU enlargement process move on apace it is likely that the SGP will come under renewed pressure from new member states also in need of infrastructural investment, according to the ESRI.